British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 36

Bad news for Labour.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.64 (343)
Labour 31.91 (245)
Liberal Democrats 17.95 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.2 Lab 32.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 31.2 LDm 18.2. The Conservative are now projected to have a small majority. However, the central point remains that the scale of the gap in popular vote terms, and the potential for tactical unwind, suggests that Gordon Brown’s position should not be completely secure.

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British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Back into hung parliament territory

 

Adding the latest You Gov poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 38.63 (309)
Labour 30.77 (269)
Liberal Democrats 17.01 (41)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.8 Lab 32 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 29.4 LDm 18.2. Although we are back to hung parliament territory, the fact remains that Samplemiser has not projected a Labour majority since November 4th. Brosi Johnson’s lead in London shows that Labour need to do something to combat the third term inertia, and that Gordon Brown might not be the leader who can find the solution. At the very least they need to go on the attack against Cameron.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 100

Should Labour start thinking about a challenge to Brown?

Adding the latest You Gov poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.98 (375)
Labour 29 (215)
Liberal Democrats 17.05 (31)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.4 Lab 31.8 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41 Lab 30 LDm 18.6. No matter how you look at it, things are dire for Labour. If knives aren’t already being sharpened they should be now.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 60

Things are still bad for Labour but there is a slight improvement

 

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.11 (355)
Labour 28.76 (222)
Liberal Democrats 20.38 (43)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.8 Lab 32.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 40.4 Lab 30.8 LDm 18.4. Although the situation is still dire, things are just a little bit better.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 106

Very bad news for Labour.

Adding the latest ICM and YouGov polls to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.54 (378)
Labour 27.54 (210)
Liberal Democrats 16.33 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.4 Lab 33 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.8 Lab 32.4 LDm 17.4. Although the two minor measures are slightly less dire for Labour, the situation is grim. The budget seems to have been a catalyst for a mass move to the Conservatives. Changes need to be made and we shouldn’t assume that they will stop at Alistair Darling.

Britsh Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Good news for the Liberal Democrats.

 

Adding the latest Populus poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.08 (306)
Labour 33.99 268
Liberal Democrats 18.96 (45)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.8 Lab 33.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.4 Lab 33.6 LDm 16.8. Ironically, although Labour have closed the gap in terms of the headline popular vote (though they have worsened their position in the two other measures) their projected seat numbers have declined, since they no longer are projected to recapture many of the seats that they lost to the Liberal Democrats.

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.06 (311)
Labour 32.84 (280)
Liberal Democrats 16.04 (29)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39 Lab 32.6 LDm 18.2.

Labour has slightly improved its position in the headline figures and gone down in the other measures. Again, Labour really need to find some way of permanantly changing things, probably by attacking David Cameron.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority of 28

Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.88 (339)
Labour 30.36 (246)
Liberal Democrats 16.95 (34)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.8 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32 LDm 18.4.

The Conservatives seem to have bounced back, although whether this is down to the Cameron effect (Cameron’s exposure in the news being a positive for them even when the news is negative) or a realization that nationalisation may not have been the optimal solution for Northern Rock remains to be seen (I believe it is a bit of both).

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Adding the latest YouGov poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 39.86 (293)
Labour 33.98 (290)
Liberal Democrats 18.10 (37)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 37.8 Lab 33.8 LDm 18.2 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32.6 LDm 18.6.

The polling is unambiguous that the Northern Rock nationalisations has not (for the moment) at least been the knockout blow that the Conservatives were hoping for. It is now conceivable that we may actually see Labour consistantly ahead in the polls by the late spring.

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Conservatives lead in votes but Labour now lead in seats.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.7 (273)
Labour 33.66 (297)
Liberal Democrats 20.34 (50)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.4 LDm 18.2.

This seems to suggest that Labour is closing the gap with the Conservatives. Paradoxically, the Northern Rock nationalization may have drawn a line under the whole sorry saga, even if it is the worse possible solution.

British Polling Projections: Conservative majority of 4

TPM looks at the state of the British polls

Using Samplemiser to filter all British polls since late August produces the following (seat projections in brackets):

Conservatives 40.98 (327)
Labour 31.99 (264)
Liberal Democrats 16.02 (28)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 18.

This is dispiriting news for all parties. It’s bad for Labour because of the 8.99 deficit in the popular vote. It’s bad for the Conservatives because they have barely got a majority. Despite the fact that that no party will get a decisive majority, suggesting that they might have to be invited into a coalition government, the Liberal Democrats will lose a large number of seats. If these results were repeated the Conservatives would probably run a minority government for six months or so and then call another election.

Filtered Polling Data: Conservative majority 72

Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 43.07 Labour 31.04 Liberal Democrats 15.93. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 68 Given that a poll in tomorrow’s Guardian will announce a much closer result (although the detailed data needed for a projection is not yet available) this result should be regarded as provisional.

Filtered Polling Data: Conservative Majority 100

Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 44.72 Labour 32.02 Liberal Democrats 13.09. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here (the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 92).

Filtered polling data: Hung Parliament

Inputting the latest Mori poll into Samplemiser gives us the following projection: Conservatives 40.23 Labour 32.23 Liberal Democrats 15.86. This gives an unchanged projection of Conservatives 321 Labour 268 Liberal Democrats 30, which would be hung parliament but one with the Conservatives strong enough to run the government without having to seek a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. An updated copy of the filtered data since the end of August is available here british-polls-as-of-dec-12.pdf (a UNS is used for the parliamentary projections). Interesting over the hundred days for which I’ve kept records the UNS model has predicted a Labour majority and a hung parliament 44 times each with the Conservatives only winning a majority 12 times.

Filtered Polling Data: Hung Parliament

Inputting the latest Populus poll into Samplemiser gives us the following projection: Conservatives 40.08 Labour 31.99 Lib Dem 15.99. This gives a projection of Conservatives 321 Labour 268 Liberal Democrats 30, which would be hung parliament but one with the Conservatives strong enough to run the government without having to seek a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. A copy of the filtered data since the end of August is available here uk-pollls-101207.pdf (a UNS is used for the parliamentary projections).