… and so does Nate Silver

“And that gets back to the heart of the gamble this pick represents. If McCain and Obama each consolidate their bases at the same percentages, Obama wins. There are now numerically more Democrats, and independents favor Obama. Before the conventions, McCain had moved past Obama, mostly because many women in Hillary Clinton’s coalition had failed to warm to the Democratic nominee. Obama was stuck at 83% of his base and McCain had moved from a tie into 87% consolidation. Had this week’s Denver convention not been as successful from a unity standpoint, McCain might not have needed as much to go for broke. If Obama secures his base, wins indies (as he’s easily doing) and dominates in the ground game, game over for McCain. Demographically, the mountain is too steep to climb.” – Nate Silver

Kilgore gets it

“”Credentials aside, Palin is very vulnerable because, like McCain, she’s mainly “above party” because she dissents from Republican orthodoxy in Alaska from the Right. Both cultural and economic wingnuts love her passionately. And as I said in my last post, she crucially reinforces McCain’s phony “maverick” image with her own phony maverick image. Ignoring all that in favor of mocking her for what many Democrats are privately calling her “obvious” lack of credentials for the White House is a big and unnecessary gamble, and quite possibly a trap. (the Democrats) should all take pains to avoid it. “” – Ed Kigore

The counterintuitive logic of a Palin selection

Why McCain’s decision to select Sarah Palin is not completely mad

McCain’s decision to pick Sarah Palin is a very poor and irresponsible decision. To quote Mark Halperin, ‘McCain has failed the ultimate test that any presidential candidate must face in picking a running mate: selecting someone who is unambiguously qualified to be president’. Putting someone who has two years in executive office, and who supported Pat Buchanan, in a position where she could be a heartbeat from the Presidency was putting party before country. Choosing her over hundreds of better qualified candidates from both sexes smacks of tokenism.

It also is a slap in the face for the moderate Republicans and independents who supported McCain. In retrospect the idea of selecting Joe Lieberman was always going to be problematic, although it was handled badly. However, if Tom Ridge, Rudy Giuliani and the pro-life Lindsay Graham are all too controversial for the Republican base, then there is a big question mark as to the GOP’s future, especially since there will never be another time when such a gesture is needed. If McCain is pandering with his selection of Palin, and has pandered on immigration, tax cuts and other issues, can he really move to the centre once in office?

Indeed, I came close to closing all my betting positions on John McCain and taking what profits I have. However, there is one way in which it might benefit McCain, by bringing into focus Obama’s inexperience. If it is clear that putting an inexperienced, haughty, paleo-conservative on the bottom of the Republican ticket is stupid, then it logically must also be true that having a very similar (though slightly better) politician on the top of the Democratic ticket is even more ludicrous. Indeed, many historians have argued that Caligua’s plans to make his horse Incitatus was a way of mocking the Senate, rather than simply insanity.

This ‘politics as performance art’ strategy might seem rather obscure, but the Obama campaign would simply undermine their own case if they tried to run a ‘3am’ strategy against Palin. Although the campaign has now shied away from doing it, immediately after Palin was announced there were indications that they were falling into the trap. Instead, their best course of action is both to use this to question McCain’s judgement, but also to use this a cover for a campaign that focuses on the economy. Of course, McCain still has a very good chance at victory and he is clearly the better candidate, but this is more Incitatus than even Dan Quayle or Geraldine Ferraro.

An unconventional take on the convention season

Why their respective conventions might be a mixed blessing for Obama and McCain

The conventional wisdom is that both political parties will experience a bounce in popularity. However, the evidence so far is that the Democratic convention has backfired. Hillary and Bill Clinton have managed to triangulate the situation by nominally endorsing Obama, but all but kicking off their 2012 campaign. At the same time Michelle Obama’s speech, which seemed rather stilted and nervous, has made little or no impact. Although much of the media attention on the PUMA’s is ‘inside baseball’ (i.e. speculation about speculation), it has crowded everything else off the front pages.

However, McCain is by no means in a secure position. Unless he chooses Lieberman or Giuliani he will have locked himself into a convention which gives plenty of red meat to the base, but little to the centrists who will decide this election. It is very possible that after several nights of the ‘scarlet R’ he might actually lose points in the poll. Although McCain should be pleased that he is now neck and neck with Obama, he is stuck in the middle. If he were ten points ahead or behind his strategy would be obvious, but he is close enough for his aides to (wrongly) counsel caution, but not in the position when he can play it safe.

I am still going to go with McCain making an ‘amazing’ choice of running mate rather than Mitt Romney, but even if he does not do this he needs to thrust the few moderates he has (such as Lieberman and Giuliani) out in front. He also needs to make an explicit appeal to the middle grounds and refrain from pandering. I have been wrongly predicting ‘do or die’ moments for McCain ever since last year, and I would still rate McCain as a favourite, but I am worried by Obama’s huge war chest and his superior organisation.

Obama leads McCain by 2.58%

McCain needs to throw caution to the wind

As the hours tick down to Obama’s acceptance speech and McCain’s decision about a running mate, my final projections are:

Barack Obama 47.19
John McCain 44.61

These are produced by putting polls of likely voters (source: Pollster.com) through the filtering programme Samplemiser.

It is obvious that voters want a Democrat as their next President but don’t want Obama. McCain could probably grind out a win by picking Pawlentry and going negative but does he really want to face Obama’s incredible cash machine? My view is that his gaffe about housing has eliminated Romney. Similarly, Obama’s selection of Biden has damaged Pawlentry. My guess (which is the same as it has been for the past year or so) is that we are going to see a McCain/Lieberman ticket, but with Lieberman pledging to uphold the Republican stance on abortion. Certainly, this is the key moment of the election. Even if McCain doesn’t do the right thing he’s still come a long way from near anhilation, but the logic of this primary season demands the selection of Lieberman.

Veepstakes: My final take

My final thoughts on the Veepstakes

For the Republicans I am going to stick with McCain choosing Lieberman. Call me idealistic, call me presumptuous but McCain clearly wants to choose Lieberman and if there is a story about this contest it is about McCain choosing Lieberman. From McCain’s reference to John Lewis (which was a reference to Lieberman’s Civil Rights record) and Lieberman’s confession that he made a mistake about Alito (though if it wasn’t for him and the Gange of Fourteen there wouldn’t be an Alito), they are preparing to run. However, life is not an episode of West Wing, and even then Vinnick lost, so if while I’m sticking to Lieberman it might well be Pawlentry. McCain is not going to choose youth (Jindal, Palin, Cantor etc), money (Fiorina, Whitman) nor is the pick going to some pro-choice governor (Ridge, Lingle, Rell). Romney would be a bit too humiliating and Thompson, Rice and Huckabee don’t particularly want it (though it would be nice to see how long the NRO crowd maintained their pro-life position in the face of a Huckabee or a Graham pick). So it is going to be either Lieberman, Pawlentry or Giuliani. Kasich or Hutchinson might be a long-shot.

The Democrat pick is irrelevant since the public clearly don’t want Obama but they want a Democrat. My guess is that he will choose Biden, Hillary or Richardson. Richardson would nail down Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada and make McCain’s life difficult so I bet Richardson will be considered. However, unless Obama chooses someone who is pro-life, the pick will not be that important. My choice (if I supported Obama, though I don’t) would be Ken Salazar. Salazar supported the War in Iraq and is a moderate but if Obama had listened to me he wouldn’t have adopted the positions or the strategy that he did. If it is going to be a ‘headfake’ it will be Warner. Gilmore is so inept that Warner could bow out without endangering the Democrats’ chance of creating two Virginia Senators.

Could McCain choose Rudy?

Probably not, but here’s why he might.

There has been speculation that the whole Tom Ridge trial balloon is to with Rudolph Giuliani rather than Joe Lieberman. Rudolph Giuliani has a strong regional appeal in the North-East and New England. His selection would potentially put New York, and its thirty-five Electoral College votes, into play. As Mayor of a city larger than many states, Giuliani spent pushed through policies that promoted the idea that anyone, including immigrants, could succeed as long as they worked hard and obeyed the law. This would be especially welcome in a Republican Party where some demonise immigrants in a manner little different from Jeremiah Wright’s anti-American rants. As drug dealers, corrupt cops and Michael Milken found out, Giuliani is a strong leader who is unafraid of confrontation, either on the campaign trail, or in office.

If selected, Giuliani would need to open his activities as a security consultant out to public scrutiny and he will need to emphasise his willingness to select pro-life judges. He also runs the risk of his private life and questions over his planning for terrorist attacks overshadowing the campaign. Personally, I think the fact that he is being given a keynote spot at the convention means he won’t be the running mate. However, I could well imagine a scenario where he is the nominee and Lieberman claims the vacant keynote speaking spot. McCain has gone out so far on a limb that Lieberman is still the only person he should select. However, were he to select Giuliani (or Graham) as his running mate and give Lieberman the keynote spot, then he could at least claim that to have reached out beyond the base.

Time to unleash the inner Maverick

Why McCain should choose Lieberman as his running mate

The big issue of last week was McCain’s announcement that he would consider picking a pro-choice running mate. Although this was nominally in the context of former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge, this was really about the possibility of putting the Independent Senator Joe Lieberman on the ticket. Unsurprisingly, this has generate a lot of controversy, with Evangelical leaders and even the McCain supporting Weekly Standard say that this would be inadvisable. My take, as someone who has wagered money on this election, including on McCain’s vice presidential pick, is that McCain must ignore such ‘advice’ and choose Lieberman.

The conventional wisdom is that McCain will need someone who is either young or female, has a lot of expertise on the economy and will satisfy more conservative Republicans (or the ‘base’ as it is often called). Governors Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal would satisfy the first and the third criteria, while the current favourite, Mitt Romney, would seem to tick the last two boxes. However, Jindal and Palin do not bring any geographical advantage and are too young and inexperienced. Mitt Romney has had a lot of private sector experience and could help McCain in Michigan. However, even voters in the Republican primaries clearly preferred McCain’s inexperience to Romney’s reiteration of Bush’s economic philosophy.

In contrast Lieberman’s stance on the Iraq war, and his hawkish views on foreign policy, have made him the conscience of the Democratic party, at the same time that he has become an outcast from it. Selecting Lieberman would thwart Obama’s attempts to sideline foreign policy. It would be a powerful signal to swing voters who are disillusioned by both the antiwar stance of the Democrats, and the domestic policy stances of the Republicans. Selecting someone who marched for civil rights would stymie Obama’s cynical attempts to insinuate that McCain is a racist.

Most importantly, it would be a way for McCain to demonstrate that he is truly a maverick. McCain was courageous on foreign policy, but he has made too many concessions on domestic issues. Party identification figures suggest that the only way that McCain can win is if he manages to convince the electorate that he is neither a generic Republican nor someone who will be subservient to the GOP ‘base’ and their self-appointed leaders. Most importantly, the fact that the race remains deadlocked means that driving up Obama’s negative isn’t enough. McCain needs to offer some positive reasons for sending him to the White House.

Interestingly, the reactions to McCain’s musings, although largely negative, have been surprisingly muted. Although Evangelicals and economic conservatives were intensely critical, the hysterical threats of third party candidacies that plagued Giuliani and the calls for a fight at the convention were absent. Even the National Review, which once ran an article demanding that McCain stuff his cabinet with luminaries such as George ‘Macaca’ Allen, seemed prepared to accept McCain’s choice. Having lauded Lieberman for his work on violence in television, and relied on his support when a prominent pastor’s disgraceful views were exposed, the Evangelical Right cannot credibly oppose him.

However, Lieberman will need to acknowledge that he, rather than McCain, will be doing most of the compromising on domestic policy. Lieberman will also have to modify his pro-choice position, which puts him at odds with McCain’s opposition to abortion. However, although he was ultimately unsuccessful, Rudolph Giuliani made a pretty convincing case that a willingness to select pro-life judges is more important than a specific stance on abortion. Ultimately, McCain needs to reassert his position as a moderate on domestic policy and a hawk on foreign affairs, rather than using his running mate to pretend that he doesn’t ‘have more scars than Frankenstein’.

In any case, having floated the idea, McCain will look weak if he doesn’t follow through. If he fails to face down the Republican establishment on such a symbolic issue, he will have difficulty convincing American voters in November that he can be trusted to face down the leadership of Russia and Iran. I’m not American, and my objectivity is compromised by the money that I have staked on Lieberman being McCain’s vice president, but it would be strange if McCain was unable to do what Truman (with Eisenhower), Clinton (with Collin Powell) or even a hack like Kerry (with McCain himself) did and at least offer a place on the ticket to someone from outside their party.

Saddleback: My impressions

A narrow victory for McCain

After a quick read of the transcript, I’ve come to the conclusion that both McCain and Warren were the winners of the Saddleback forum last night. The fact that posters on Daily Kos are talking about ‘bias’, and even insinuating that Warren somehow leaked the questions to McCain beforehand, tells you all you need to know. Ironically, I was impressed by Warren. Although he had set expectations low by hinting he would ask bland questions more suited to a job interview than a Presidential forum, he managed to keep his questions relevant.

McCain clearly had two things in mind; to throw red meat to the base on abortion without ruling out Lieberman and to quash the spin that he was incoherent. He accomplished both things and also managed to raise the tone of the evening by mentioning John Lewis as one of those he would listen to closely. He clearly isn’t going to make inroads into Obama’s support in the African-American community, but it is nice to see him acknowledging it’s existence, something Hillary Clinton failed to do. His conservative stance on taxation was disappointing. However, McCain will hopefully have used his choice of running mate to demonstrate that he is not a generic Republican by the time the Presidential debates begin.

McCain also made the strategic decision to answer the less important questions more quickly, allowing him to give a detailed response on the issues he wanted to emphasise. Obama, on the other hand, took around the same time on each question, which meant that Warren was forced to cut him off on some of the questions. McCain also directly confronted the question about his first marriage without prompting, thus removing one of Obama’s possible lines of attack. The only slightly hollow note was the reference to the Obama’s decision to educate their daughters privately.

Obama will gain some credit for showing up in what is Republican territory. However, the way his appearance had been over-hyped and the fact that this was a relatively sympathetic environment, means that any boost on these grounds will be marginal. The only positive thing that Obama did well was to mention his elderly grandmother as one of those whom he consults regularly, though that risks re-dredging up memories of Wrightgate. Reading the transcript Obama seemed hesitant and nearly avoided making a major gaffe in his speech about Clarence Thomas. As someone who has money on McCain I am happy that my worst fears were not realised.

What about Eric Cantor?

Why it won’t be Eric Cantor.

Another candidate who is being supposedly vetted by McCain is Eric Cantor, a congressman from Virginia. The idea is that he is young, hawkish and appeases the right. However, like Jindal and Palin, he is simply too inexperienced and too right-wing. The Republicans cannot criticise Obama, only to pick someone who is less experience that he has.

Could Obama choose Bayh?

The Senator from Indiana surges on Intrade

Ever since Erza Klein pointed out that someone had registered a Obama/Bayh website that just happened to redirect to the DNC, there has been a surge in interest in the Senator from Indiana as Obama’s running mate. I have to admit that it makes a lot of sense, though it isn’t as dramatic as choosing Kaine, Hagel, Bloomberg or Richardson. I have to admit that before I started to get really interested in the election, I thought that Bayh might have had a good chance for the top shot.

McCain still improving

John McCain continues to improve on intrade

As the chart shows, McCain price is still improving, albiet at a slower rate. Even a conservative estimate would put McCain’s chances of winning at about 65%, while I feel that they could be closer to 70%. However, I did make the mistake of underestimating’s Obama’s chances during the Democratic primaries, so it is possible that I could be wrong.

McCain leads by 0.87

Finally, I can show a McCain lead on my chart

My latest projections are:

John McCain 46.7
Barack Obama 45.83

McCain having his first definite lead in my projections since May 31st (likely voters only, filtered through Samplemiser) I am breathing a little more freely. However, even I have to admit that one swallow doesn’t make a summer. With the exception of a few poll readings during Wrightgate, McCain has failed to break 50%, while Obama has never got a majority of voters to back him.

Although it might be the beginning of the end for Obama, it is definitely not ‘mission accomplished’ for McCain. Against my expectations, Schmidt has managed to cauterise the wound. However, now is the time to do something radical, like picking Lieberman or Giuliani, to seal the deal.

McCain continues to improve in betting market

The second ‘McCain surge’ continues

With McCain ahead in Rasmussen’s tracking poll and the Barack Obama campaign proving that it can shoot itself in its foot, the betting markets are starting to realise that they have underpriced McCain. This doesn’t mean that they have made McCain the favourite (although he should be) but the difference between market perpceptions and reality is a little bit closer than it was a week ago. However, McCain’s price still has a long way to rise, before it becomes fair value.

Is McCain repeating Hillary’s mistake?

How will ‘playing the race card’ affect the Presidential contest?

The past two days has been taken up by the great race controversy. John McCain put out an advert comparing Obama to two white celebrities. Obama, and the rest of the left-wing blogosphere, then claimed that McCain was playing to some subliminal racist sentiments. McCain’s campaign then claimed that Obama was ‘playing the race card’. Now, I have been critical of McCain’s flip-flop on Affirmative Action and I think the McCain campaign made a strategic mistake in wading into a debate about race. Even though I freely offer my £0.02 on most aspects of this contest, I’ll admit that American racial politics is also something that it hard to appreciate 3,000 mile across the ocean.

However, my guess is that this will backfire badly on the Obama campaign. Firstly, only an exceptionally paranoid mind can honestly claim that comparing Obama to Ms Hilton on a par with the infamous ‘Harold, call me’ advert of 2006. Whether a left-liberal bias exists in the media, there is clear polling evidence that the public think that the media want Obama to win. Secondly, the popular desire to right a history of slavery and segregation is one of the most poweful forces behind Obama’s campaign – and probably the only positive thing that could come out of an Obama victory in November. However, by exploiting it in a cynical fashion, Obama risks diminishing it – and his campaign.

So, I don’t think McCain is repeating the huge errors that Hillary Clinton made. He isn’t comparing Obama to Jesse Jackson (though I personally think that Jackson’s outburst was calculated to garner sympathy for Obama) and he isn’t ranting about ‘hardworking White people’. I would suggest, on the principle that his behaviour should be above the smallest hint of question, that McCain should avoid talking about Affirmative Action or getting involved in any debates, but I think that the Obama team are crying wolf. More importantly, I think Obama is digging a hole for himself.