Archive for April, 2008

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TPT gives some advice to McCain

April 30, 2008

Seven steps the Senator from Arizona should take

I’m going to repeat the exercise that I performed last year of looking at the strategies that the major campaigns should adopt. I’m going to kick off with the McCain campaign.

1. Fire Phil Gramm and the rest of his economic team and replace him with Irwin Seltzer and refugees from the DLC. Emphasise a mixture of closing tax loopholes, ending both pork barrel spending and homeowner handouts, and regulatory reform. Steal Mitt Romney’s healthcare plan (the plan he actually implemented, NOT his 2008 plan) and start acting like the McCain of 2000-6 on economic matters.

2. Get a proper Rapid Response unit so that the constant smears and low level psuedo-‘scandals’ (eg ‘Lobbygate’ and Hagee are dealt with). Letting Daily Kos and MyDD go unchecked is a bad idea since the mainstream media seem to be paying them a lot of attention.

3. Get Joe Lieberman, Condi Rice & Rudoph Giuliani to blast Wright on national security (and only national security). Get Lieberman to go around the country speaking to the religious voters (having Lieberman sponsor some family values legislation in the Senate would also be good) and Jon Huntsman and Mitt Romney speaking to Mormon voters in the Mountain West.

4. Give Collin Powell, Chuck Hagel and Michael Bloomberg positions within the campaign (say Chair of the campaign in the North East) so they can’t endorse Obama.

5. Make sure the Paulites attempt to overturn the primary results are nipped in the bud. Build a decent organisation in FL, MO, MI, PA, WI, OH and NY. Visit the states such as New York, New Jersey and Massachusettes rather than wasting time in states like Alabama.

6. Select either Joe Lieberman or Condi Rice as his running mate, but keep it a surprise until the nominating speech. If it is Lieberman get someone like Newt Gingrich, who has floated the idea of a McCain-Liberman ticket, or Rush Limbaugh to give the nomination speech.

7. Begin sounding out some DLC and Blue Dog type Democrats about the possiblity of getting endorsements from disillusioned Dems. Getting someone like Charlie Wilson to speak at the convention would be really great (but no Zell Miller type rants).

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Hillary leads by 7.84% in Indiana

April 30, 2008

More bad news for Obama

I’ve come up with the following projections for Indiana.

Hillary Clinton 50.35
Barack Obama 42.51

Although the PPP gives Hillary a slightly smaller lead, it boosts her by confirming her larger lead in Indiana. My view is that winning Indiana and losing by less than 15 will strengthen Hillary’s hand. Although Hillary can’t win in terms of pledged delegates she can win in terms of the popular vote, which will give the Superdelegates enough reason to start justifying voting for her.

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Obama leads by only 10% in North Carolina

April 30, 2008

Obama’s lead falls in North Carolina

Adding the latest polls to the collection of North Carolina polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Barack Obama 50.31
Hillary Clinton 40.31

Obama support is diminishing in North Carolina, but the Survey USA poll that had him only 5% ahead of Clinton was balanced out by the Rasmussen poll that had him 14% ahead. My view is that Wrightgate will hurt him even more. However, if Hillary wants to gain the nomination, and my view is that she has a good shot at achieving it, she is going to have do so over the face of a tremendous amount of opposition. Such opposition will not be fatal to her chances but it will require a bit of courage.

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Too little, too late

April 30, 2008

Is Obama really a ‘victim’ of Wright?

Unfortunately, it looks like Obama and his supporters will probably have the chutzpah to claim that Obama is a ‘victim’ of Wright. Of course, in realty Obama spent 20 years in Wright’s church and knew fully well what he was getting into when he dedicated his autobiography to Wright, donated a large sum of money to Wright’s church, asked him to serve on an advisory council and said that Wright was ‘a sounding board for me to make sure that I am speaking as truthfully about what I believe as possible’. Obama’s prolonged association with Wright shows, at the very least, appalling judgement and heavily hints at a worldview that is sympathetic to dictators and doesn’t view America as a force for good. In times when the West is facing a concerted enemy, there is no room for this sort of thinking. It is also ironic that find it that Obama’s supporters praised Obama for not repudiating Wright but now, once it becomes obvious that Wright was not misquoted, have changed their tune and now think that Wright is attempting to destroy Obama’s campaign.

Of course a quite a few commentators have been sympathetic to Obama about this latest outburst and some people will buy into this latest spin that Wright has ‘gone postal’. Indeed, Rush Limbaugh has gone so far as to state that, ‘Clinton minister set up Obama’s minister, exactly right, Errol Louis is saying today that the organizer of Wright’s appearance at the National Press Club was set up, and she was sitting right next to him at the dais talking to him. He was set up by Barbara Reynolds who is a Clinton operative’. A I’m willing to entertain the possibility that, like Samantha Power’s outburst about Hillary Clinton, Wright’s latest rantings may have been a tactical move to allow Obama to disown Wright without repudiating Wright’s value. However, I don’t buy into the conspiracy theory that Wright wants to destroy Obama’s campaign or the bizarre assertion that Hillary Clinton is somehow behind this.

To be honest both the McCain and Clinton campaigns have handled it badly. Saying nothing has enabled Obama to spin it the way that he wanted to and left the nastier element of the GOP, such as the Republican party in North Carolina, to try to turn this into a question of race rather than of foreign policy. Ironically, the New York Times complains that, ‘Mr. McCain has not tried hard enough to stop a race-baiting commercial’. As soon as the first tapes were aired Hillary should have held a press conference in New York and denounced his comments about 9/11 and tied it into Obama’s leadership. If she or McCain were unwilling to do so themselves they should have got surrogates like Chuck Schumer or Rudy Giuliani to do so. I also think that to compare it with Hagee is silly, since despite what the New York Times tries to imply, Hagee has not been McCain’s pastor for 20 years, nor has McCain used Hagee as a sounding board. Although McCain’s decision not to fully repudiate Hagee’s endorsement was disappointing, comparing the two is silly. While McCain may have accepted Hagee’s endorsement (and that of Rob Parsley) McCain is not an ethusiastic congregant of either. This episode does show the extent to which some in the media are prepared to shill for Obama, even to the extent of trying to spin his relationship with Wright as a positive.

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Hillary’s price begins to gather some mometum

April 29, 2008

Are Punters Starting to wake up to the fact that Hillary is still there?

The prices on both Hillary Clinto and Al Gore have picked up in the last twenty-four hours. Gore is now trading at 4.5 and Hillary is now trading at above twenty. I believe that this is not only a combination of Jeremiah Wright’s latest outburst, which to be fair has generated a fair amount of sympathy for Obama, or the Indiana poll figures, but a realisation that Obama’s lead in pledged delegates might not be enough to guarantee him a victory. This has been the case for some time, but finally people are starting to wake up to this fact, as the reality that Obama’s support is more atkin to a bubble than a paradigm shift becomes ever more obvious. Certainly, I feel that Obama will not benefit fromt the wish to ‘put Hillary out of her misery’ that prevent Hillary from putting her margin into dobule figures.

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Clinton leads by 7.56% in Indiana

April 29, 2008

Is Obama’s campaign starting to implode?

I’ve come up with the following projections for Indiana.

Hillary Clinton 50.98
Barack Obama 43.42

Hillary now has a substantial lead in Indiana. With Jeremiah Wright seeming to care more about cashing on his fifteen minutes of notoriety than getting Obama elected, the Super Delegates must be seriously worrying about Barack Obama’s electability. Of course, polls like these raise the expectations bar for Hillary and Wright’s antics may serve, in a paradoxical way, to drive a wedge between him and Obama in the public mind, but this is still very bad news for the Senator from Illinois. Perhaps some money on Harold Ford Jr as the Democratic Vice-Presidential candidate might be a wise investment?

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Obama leads by 11.40 in North Carolina

April 28, 2008

Obama’s lead falls in North Carolina

Adding the latest polls to the collection of North Carolina polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Barack Obama 51.38
Hillary Clinton 39.98

Obama support in North Carolina continues to decline. Previously, even I had thought that Clinton could never hope to reduce his lead to single digits. Evidently, the results in Pennsylvania seem to have pushed Obama’s weaknesses to the forefront of voters’ minds. Expect to see some very close results on May 6th.