Archive for November, 2007

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Romney moves back into the lead … by 0.3%.

November 30, 2007

Mitt Romney is still in dire trouble.

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Inputting the latest Iowa ARG survey sees a virtual dead heat between the two Romney and Huckabee, with Romney now in the lead. The full projections are: Romney 27.38 Huckabee 27.08 Thompson 13.54 Giuliani 9.36 McCain 8.47 Paul 3.09. Romney and Thompson are still in trouble and McCain needs to get cracking. However, there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel and he should seriously consider putting in more than a nominal effort in the Hawkeye state. Pushing Giuliani into fifth place is too good an opportunity to pass up and it would a shame if Rudy beat him by a few hundred votes, which would be the difference between a nominal organisation and no ground organisation at all.

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Betting Journal: Sold Thompson and bought Huckabee

November 30, 2007

Because of recent events I need to properly recap the trades that I have made over the past few days. I have sold 31 contract of Fred Thomspon in total (bringing me down to 30) and bought 13 contracts on Huckabee. In total I have:

100 contracts of GOP.NOM.SANFORD
30 contracts of GOP.NOM.GINGRICH
30 contracts of GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)
39 contracts of GOP.NOM,.MCCAIN
13 contracts of GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE
-10 contracts of GOP.NOM.PAUL
12 contracts of DEM.NOM.CLINTON
80 contracts of PRESIDENT.FIELD.2008
9 contracts of UK.LABOUR
9 contracts of HOUSE.GOP.2008
-7 contracts of REP.IOWA.ROMNEY
– 7 contracts of REP.NH.ROMNEY
10 contracts of REP.NH.HUCKABEE
10 contracts of REP.NH.MCCAIN
10 contracts of REP.NH.THOMPSON
10 contracts of DROPOUT.DEC07.GIULIANI
3 contracts of DROPOUT.DEC07.EDWARDS
10 contracts of DEM.VP.WARNER
10 contracts of DEM.VP.WEBB
10 contracts of DEM.VP.KERREY
10 contracts of DEM.VP.NUNN
10 contracts of DEM.VP.DASCHALE
10 contracts DEM.VP.FIELD

and $1.62 in cash.

Obviously, many of those contracts are only in my portfolio because I am unable to get rid of them but I am confident that collectively they are woth more than my initial sum of $500.

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Are these the two biggest losers from the debate?

November 29, 2007

McCain wins on substance but Huckabee wins on style.

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My gut reaction from reading the transcripts is that the Republican party is in serious ideological trouble. I accept that as left of centre Blairite (the British equivalent of the DLC) I am biased but I believe that the Republicans can only win the election by emphasising the War in Iraq and offering a platform of achievable reforms as an alternative to Clinton’s bombast and Obama’s inexperience. However, as the National Review Online (the US equivalent of the Daily Telegraph) put it, ‘Based on the tone and answers given tonight, you would think that the Republican Party seethes with a blistering resentment of immigrants, with only the briefest of pauses to distinguish between those who are illegal and legal. You would think that the only tax plan that they like is the Fair Tax, and that they would like to somehow eliminate all taxes and let somebody else figure out how to fund the parts of the government that are actually needed. Guys, I thought we were small-government conservatives, not no-government anarchists’.

However, I do have to admit that Mike Huckabee was impressive. He triangulated like another governor of Arkansas and he managed to appeal to the centre, without changing his views on social issues. He managed to combine home-grown homilies with the rhetoric of Dick Morris. If he can overcome his support for the National Sales Tax, he could actually pull this thing off. John McCain was also impressive, although he needs to move further to the centre and start using some of his rhetoric in the debates that he uses on the campaign trail, especially about immigration. I like the fact that he seems to have moved away from the fringe on taxation, though he needs to be more radical and go back to his original position on the Bush tax cuts. Romney and Giuliani were unimpressive while the campaign of Fred Thompson seems to be over.

In terms of the Iowa polling, if you include the new Rasmussen poll and filter it through Samplemiser you get the following: Huckabee 27.38 Romney 25.16 Giuliani 12.19 Thompson 10.93 Paul 5 McCain 4.12.

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Romney under fire as the gap closes further

November 28, 2007

The gap in Iowa between Huckabee and Romeny shrinks further.

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Putting the latest Strategic Vision poll into Samplemiser produces the following projections: Romney 26.13 Huckabee 23.96 Giuliani 13.95 Thompson 10.17 John McCain 6.98 Ron Paul 5.02. Both Romney, McCain and Thompson really need to improve their positions if they don’t want the following primaries to turn into a Giuliani versus Huckabee contest. I have to say that I am happy that I am betting against Romney! My advice to McCain is that he needs to go after Giuliani and focus on his lobbying work, while Thompson needs to make sure that he is still visible.

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Betting Journal: Sold 15 contracts of Thompson

November 28, 2007

I have started to draw down my position on Fred Thompson winning the GOP nomination, beginning with the sale of 15 contracts this morning. If he doesn’t bounce back in tonight’s debate I am going to reduce my position further.

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Filtered Polling Data: Conservative majority of 54

November 27, 2007

Putting the latest ICM poll and all the other polls since August produces a Conservative majority of when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.94 Labour 27.52 Lib Dems 17.83. This produces a projection of 222 seats for Labour, 352 for the Conservatives and 45 for the Lib Dems. The only good news for Labour is that the Conservative share of the vote seems to be stuck at around 40% as voters move from Labour to the minor parties and Lib Dems.

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Betting Journal: SOLD 5 contracts on Romney winning New Hampshire

November 26, 2007

I just bet against Mitt Romney winning New Hampshire selling short 7 contracts on him winning there. This has reduced the amount of free cash that I have in my account to $1.24, with over 99.8% of my cash tied up in positions.