Betting Journal: Thompson vs McCain

I have decided to add 21 contracts of John McCain to my position, reducing the ready cash in my intrade.com account to $224.19. I’ll explain why I did this in a longer post but when filtered the Rasmussen tracking polls through Sample Miser (reducing their MOE to 2%) I found that if you add McCain and Giuliani’s share of the votes to from a ‘centrist’ bloc and Thompson, Romney and (since last week) Huckabee’s shares to form a ‘conservative’ bloc you get a high degree of stability. This suggests that McCain should be fighting Giuliani for the control of the centrist bloc and Thompson, Romney and Huckabee should be fighting for the right. Although McCain has run a poor campaign and Thompson has been underwhelming I still think that after the dust settles the contest will between those two.