Obama’s lead down to 4.1%

Is McCain bouncing back, or is this just an illusion?

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 44.90

This might just be the usual polling noise but I feel that McCain’s campaign may have turned a corner, especially when one looks at it in the context of the Missouri poll. Using the fictional Russell Bell’s scale this might not be a 50 degree day for McCain but it is not a 40 degree day either. In any case the Obama camp should be worried, especially given that for the last three months they have run a very good texbook campaign.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

McCain leads Obama by 6.50% in Missouri

Can we now say that Obama’s bounce is now over?

My latest projections for Missouri are:

John McCain 49.61 Barack Obama 43.11

There is finally some good news for McCain and his staff. Missouri is a key bellweather state and one that only has a tiny bias towards the GOP. Although this would be less than Bush’s margin of 7%, this shows that the Obama bounce is definitely subsiding, though no thanks to McCain’ staff.

Obama leads by 3.93% in Pennsylvania

Not too bad for McCain but he needs to move closer to Obama.

My latest projections for Pennsylvania are:

Barack Obama 45.97
John McCain 42.04

McCain obviously trails Obama in Pennsylvania. However, a deficit 3.93% isn’t too bad considering Obama’s national lead and Pennslyvania’s (small) bias towards the Democrats. However, Charlie Black’s gaffe should serve as a wakeup call for a much needed rearrangement of the staff.

A Man in the Arena

Why McCain needs to invoke the spirit of Theodore Roosevelt

As I have said elsewhere, it is obvious from the polls that that McCain’s attempt to run on a hard right tax cutting agenda isn’t working, and more importantly is something that McCain doesn’t believe in. In reality McCain is a right of centre populist who believes in free trade, school vouchers and attacking wasteful spending but also believes in regulatory reform, global warming, expanding access to health care and is worried about inequality. He also supports issues such immigration reform, energy independence and balanced budgets which are neither right nor left. Just as his best moment on foreign policy came when he directly confronted Ron Paul, his best two domestic policy moments came when he attacked Romney (and implicitly Giuliani) over the ‘profit not patriotism’ line and Huckabee over his regressive tax plan.

The Democratic lead on economic issues and their lead in the generic ballot means that there is simply no popular appetite for further economic conservatism. Obviously, Dick Morris is the last person who should be giving policy advice and his stuff about oil speculators and companies is simply demagogic nonsense. However, his contention in a recent interview that, ‘McCain can win by entering the democratic primary. He has to be a democratic opponent to to Obama. He should be a populist, and win over (working-class) Hillary voters’, is correct. It is also self-evident that the Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson wing of the Republican Party, who seem to have hi-jacked the McCain campaign, seem hell-bent on blaming everyone else, including the very people that McCain needs to win over, for his predicament. For instance, even the normally reasonable Irwin Seltzer seems to have gotten into his head that the one person to blame for Bush’s failures in the past two years is not Bush himself but Joe Lieberman.

So what should McCain do? I think the first thing McCain needs to do is to stop trying to be a third rate Barry Goldwater. Even though Obama has tried to give the illusion of moving to the centre there is plenty of room for McCain to come up with a tax plan that is a bit more progressive and which closes more loopholes, while still keeping economic conservatives on board. McCain should also stop hedging, instead of talking about building a few more nuclear power plants in the next twenty years he should talk about building a whole generation by 2012, a goal that is achievable if foreign technology is allowed to be imported into the US and Yucca Mountain is opened up. As I have said before McCain also needs to make overtures to those on the DLC wing of the Democratic Party. Although this may seem radical, it would be no different from the Republican recruitment of hawkish Democrats, such as Richard Perle and Paul Wolfovitz in the mid to late 70s. I am not suggesting that McCain should go overboard or do anything silly, but moving the Republican party to the centre, by enabling conservative Democrats to vote for McCain, would do more to help protect the idea of free trade and market solutions than anything the NRO wing of the GOP have come up with so far.

Obama’s lead returns to 5.90%

Obama’s bounce persists

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 48.95
John McCain 43.05

Unlike my previous projections, there is no way that these results can be spun. Although, in time McCain’s ratings might start to catch up with those of Obama this is completely unecessary risk. McCain’s campaign has been poorly run with it increasingly reminding one of the dog in James Thurber’s short story, afraid to attack Obama because of a perceived backlash, afraid to move to the centre because that would offend the ‘base’ and most importantly afraid of mentioning the war in Iraq, even though McCain actually leads on this issue in the polls. Indeed, in terms of economic policy you could be forgiven for questioning where the imprint of Thompson and Romney ends, even though McCain has had a distinguished record fighting for the interests of hard working Americans. On domestic issues McCain desperately needs a declaration of independance.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

Why McCain should oppose drilling in ANWR

Why McCain needs to stand firm on ANWR

No policy can ever be set in stone in absolute terms. For instance, I firmly support a much stronger stance against Iran, including military action if needed, and I think that the Bush tax cuts were unsustainable. However, if Iran changed its government, was willing to stop supporting terrorists in Iraq and abandoned thoughts of a nuclear programme, a diplomatic solution might suffice. Similarly, I strongly believe that tax cutting made sense in the early Reagan era when marginal rates were punative (and there was a case for some sort of tax cuts at the end of the Clinton presidency. Context is, as always, going to be king. It could possibly even be argued that the rapid spike in oil prices makes more extensive drilling a sensible policy. In fact I have to say that set against the life and liberty of twenty million Iraqis (and seven million Israelis) I couldn’t frankly care less about the fate of a few polar bears in Alaska (not least because I don’t live in Alaska). However, flipping on ANWR, or even wobbling, is bad political strategy for McCain. This is because his opposition to drilling in the Alaskan wilderness reserve was one of the defining issues that symbolised his differences with the Republican party.

Right now, McCain needs to maintain (and even emphasise) such differences, even on the symbolic level. Indeed, if he is not ready to start advocating comprehensive immigration reform again, or reminding voters of his battles on behalf of Middle Class America, then the least he can do is not to make yet more concessions to the right wing on his party. Henry Kissinger is not someone who I either respect or agree with but trying to appeas ‘the base’ with further concessions on domestic policy is like trying to quench one thirst with salted peanuts. This doesn’t mean that he has to ignore their concerns, and he could do a talk a lot more about soft values (starting with a plan to prevent any more school children following in the steps of those young hussies in Massachusetts) but he needs to make sure that he is not seen overreacting to events and that he needs to stand up for what he believes in.

Another issue poll, another McCain lead on foreign policy

When will McCain’s campaign managers realise that the war is a positive for McCain?

The new poll from the Washington Post has Mccain leading Obama 47-46 on Iraq, 49-43 on International Affairs and 53-39 on the War on Terror. Given that McCain is trailing badly on the economy it does make one wonder when McCain’s campaign managers will stop trying to turn him into a combination of Newt Gingrich and Basil Fawlty (“don’t mention the war”) and actually let him be the Scoop Jackson centrist that he genuinely aspires. Unfortunatly, one shouldn’t hold one’s breath in the near future – although I wouldn’t be shocked if Rick Davis stepped down before the covention. Of course, this strategy might be an attempt to lay the groundwork for a surprise in Saint Paul – in which case it might make some sort of sense.

Obama’s national lead is 4.08%

Obama’s bounce is starting to fade…slowly

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 47.97
John McCain 43.89

This can really be spun two ways. I would like to say that Obama’s bounce is fading, however it is doing so at an incredibly slow rate. I still believe that McCain should be the clear favourite, however a part of me worries that McCain is both falling behind but not doing so to an extent that would serve as a wakeup call for him to move to the centre on domestic policy. Indeed, if the bounce is really fading, it is no thanks to his campaign staff or strategists who are sacrificing his reputation in favour of short term (and often contradictory) panders.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

Voters back McCain’s Iraq plan over Obama’s

Voters in Florida and Ohio back ‘stay the course’

One of the more interesting crosstabs from the recent round of Quinnipiac University swing state polinlg suggests that voters in Florida and Ohio actually prefer McCain’s Iraq plan to that of Obama. When asked the question ‘What would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq‘ they backed staying the course 48-46 in Florida and 53-42 in Ohio. Now to be fair they did back Obama’s plan in Pennsylvania but only by 49-47.

This demonstrates that Iraq is not an automatic vote loser and might actually be a vote winner in some key states.

Obama leads by 6.83 in Ohio

Obama’s bounce continues

My latest projections for Ohio are:

Barack Obama 48.33
John McCain 41.5

McCain trails Obama in Ohio. Although his campaign should not be at panic stations yet they should be getting close. Although doing something stupid such as putting a hard core Republican on the ticket or flip flopping on Iraq would be utterly stupid, maybe it would be prudent to find a new campaign manager, or try to go on the offensive against Obama.

Five reasons why Hillary won’t be Obama’s running mate

TPT bets predicts that we won’t see an Obama/Clinton ticket

1. Hillary wants to run in 2012. – If Hillary accepts the position the earliest she can run is 2016. By that time the next generation of Democratic politicans will be in place to challenge her for the Presidency, as well as various Republicans. Of course, if Obama goes down to ingnominius defeat this year, or four years later, Clinton’s political career will be over.

2. Obama doesn’t particularly like Hillary – It’s pretty obvious that Obama doesn’t share even the grudging respect that some Republicans like John McCain have for the New Yorker. The kerfuffle over ‘Whiteygate’ didn’t particularly help matters either.

3. Electoral Advantage is minimal – Hillary might bring a few female ‘Hillary Democrats’ back to the fold but, just as with John Edwards in 2004, having her on the ticket won’t bring her working class support and might actually ailenate a good number of Independants and ‘Obamacons’.

4. Obama would make her life hell as VP – Although Hillary ended the campaign much humbler than she started it, she does have some pride. If she got the VP position it would be on Obama’s terms and from his ‘discussions’ with Lieberman it is obvious that this would be a more frustrating and humiliating position than that enjoyed by Gore between 1993 and 2001. The appointment of Patti Solis Doyle as the Chief of Staff for any Vice Presidential candidate indicates that a bit of humiliation would be involved.

5. Hillary will do something between now and the convention that will rule herself out – My view is that even if Obama is planning on putting her on the ticket Hillary will rule herself out. Obviously she can’t do so formally, but my guess is that Bill Clinton will make another ‘gaffe’ or will ‘accidently’ say something positive about McCain which will make it impossible for Obama to choose her.

My view is that the chances of Hillary Clinton being Obama’s running mate are about 10%.

Redstate gets it

Why a McCain/Lieberman ticket would be good for the Republican ‘base’

Finally someone on the Republican right has picked up on my point that selecting Lieberman would be good for McCain because it would leave the contest in 2012 and/or 2016 wide open. It also must be pointed out that this argument should work for Hillary supporters as well, with Lieberman leaving the way open for a Clinton candidacy in 2012 in a way that selecting a female Republican wouldn’t.

When will McCain’s price rally?

McCain’s price falls into the low 30s – but when will it recover?

The chances of John McCain occupying the White House have seen steadily declining, with a few exceptions, for the past 50 days. Given that McCain is still close to Obama in the key swing states it is interesting to attempt to guess when (rather than if) his price will start to recover. My view is that the major catalyst will either be a change in campaign staff (which could happen any time between now and the convention) or the convention itself and McCain’s choice of running mate.

In any case I belive that McCain is still hugely undervalued. Even if you factor in the chance of some horrible tragedy his price should be in the high 60s at the very least. Of course, if you are really a short term trader (i.e you trade on price movements) the technical signs for the rally to begin are not quite there yet. However, for the rest of us the price is so attractive that it is definitely a BUY. Remember that this time last year the price on McCain becoming the Republican nominee had just dropped below single figures.

Obama’s national lead increases to 5.95

Obama’s bounce continues

My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending June 13th) are:

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 43.05

Obama’s national bounce continues with McCain trailing by nearly six points. Although all the indications on the statwide level are that Obama’s bounce is going to be pretty temporary, McCain should not wait for the bounce to fade away. Instead, McCain needs to get out on the campaign trail and get into Obama’s face. He really needs to either try and emphasise his centrist credentials to swing voters, or try to move the debate towards foreign policy. Even getting one of his surrogates to attack Obama would be better than doing nothing, which is evidently the strategy his campaign team are adopting.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

Gerson Gets It

McCain needs to fight for what he believes in

Michael Gerson of the Washington Post has written a very interesting article about the McCain campaign. His extremely critical comments about the McCain campaign’s organisation are undoubtedly true. However, what is really perceptive is his belief that, ‘McCain must define McCainism’. I believe that this is one of the major problems of the McCain campaign. McCain has an extremely distinguished record as a fighter against big tobacco and for things such as the Patients Bill of Right. He also has, ever since the mid 90s, been one of the true foreign policy visionaries, leading the fight (along with Joe Lieberman) for intervention in Kosovo, action against Saddam’s regime and for ‘Rogue state rollback’. His early belief that we needed more troops in Iraq was correct, at a time when people like myself believed that this was unnecessary, was a unusual piece of foresight.

However, the problem is that McCain is being boxed in on all sides with advisors on the right pushing him in a more economically conservative direction while his foreign policy team seem to be trying to emasculate him. Although McCain undoubtedly needs a good organisation, this is less important than sorting out his message. I believe that a dose of moderate reformist populism (as opposed to the wasteful protectionist brand that Obama is trying to push) is what the average voter in America seems to want. Similarly, whatever the polls say, I believe that at the end of the day people want a tough, muscular but also moral foreign policy. Indeed, at no time have the American public elected an isolationist candidate as President in an election dominated by foreign policy. Even when the Korean war was pushing Truman’s popularity to depths not reached even by George W Bush, the American public elected a moderate internationalist.