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Obama’s national lead increases to 5.95

June 16, 2008

Obama’s bounce continues

My new national projections (likely voters, last poll ending June 13th) are:

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 43.05

Obama’s national bounce continues with McCain trailing by nearly six points. Although all the indications on the statwide level are that Obama’s bounce is going to be pretty temporary, McCain should not wait for the bounce to fade away. Instead, McCain needs to get out on the campaign trail and get into Obama’s face. He really needs to either try and emphasise his centrist credentials to swing voters, or try to move the debate towards foreign policy. Even getting one of his surrogates to attack Obama would be better than doing nothing, which is evidently the strategy his campaign team are adopting.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

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