TPT liveblogs Election 2008 (all times are GMT/UTC)
20:53: I shouldn’t really do this (not least because I’m not an American citizen) but, GO MCCAIN!
21:40: First available exit poll from Lancaster county in PA shows Obama ahead.
22:21. 58 seats. Deducting 5% from the Dem margin would give one I guess 56 seats.
22:44 Exits look a bit strange. Possibly oversampling of Democratic and young voters.
22:49 Exits are VERY close in PA, Ohio, FL and NC.
22:50 Bought 10 McCain contracts.
23:03 Correction, estimates may be “adjusted”. Rumours of Obama +15 (which means +10 sounds right)
23:16 Other polls have Obama +4 in Va. (M +1)
23:32 Obama takes an early lead in IN. This was one of few areas where Obama might actually have outperformed exit polls against Hillary.
23:37 HuffPo has exits, taking away 5 points they are:
Iowa: M+1 (!)
North Carolina: M+1
New Hampshire: O+9
New Mexico: O+8
23:47. A point of warning regarding IN is that McCain’s and Bush areas of strength don’t match that well. I remember reading a memo in June that said McCain’s strength in PA was radically different from Bush’s. Palin might have changed things a bit but expect McCain to do better in suburban and urban areas than W.
I’d give McCain at 15% chance now. With PA off the cards McCain has to have the luck of the Irish (and it probably will be a 7% BO margin, but I still think the Mac has a chance).
23:53 Gawker exits (w 5% adjustment)
00:07 Graham holds onto Senate seat on exits alone. Good.
00:03 It’s turning out to be slightly lower than most people had expected. Still a small chance McCain could win but it looks like a 5% Obama victory nationally.
00:50 I’m feeling that we’re one call away from the contest ending. However, I’m also feeling the Democrats might be waiting for that call for four years.
01:10 Looks like Obama +5
01:14 PA & NH called for Obama though by MSNBC. I’ll wait to CNN and a red state.