Obama’s lead falters a bit

Obama now leads by only 4.74

My new projections are (my methodology is here):

Barack Obama 48.39
John McCain 43.65

The negative attacks on Obama are beginning to have some effect. Given the rather hysterical nature of them, and the unpopularity of their source, one can only conclude how more effective some more reasoned – and policy based – negative campaigning would have been earlier. In any case Obama is not helped by his unwillingness to go negative on Sarah Palin, his failure to defend himself and his decision to spend advertising money in California of all places (as opposed to concentrating on the swing states). The trend analysis suggests that Obama should be closer to 8% by now and McCain is probably stuck with Palin, so I’ll give Obama a 75% chance of winning the election. However, Obama’s completel lack of tactical acumen means that McCain’s contracts may offer a little bit of value.