Obama has a healthy lead

October 15, 2008

Obama leads by 6.40

My new projections are (my methodology is here):

Barack Obama 50.25
John McCain 43.85

The McCain campaign might be imploding, with people already starting to apportion the blame, but he still remains within striking distance, for the time being at least. I’d give him about a 20% chance of victory but it is really down to an ‘October surprise’, having the guts to dump Palin or an astounding performance tonight. I just hope that if he loses in 2008, Tom Ridge (or even Joe Lieberman in a third party) is able to pick up the pieces. After all, the graph is pretty clear on what (or who) is to blame for McCain’s downfall.


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