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Election 2008 live blog

November 4, 2008

TPT liveblogs Election 2008 (all times are GMT/UTC)

mccain

20:53: I shouldn’t really do this (not least because I’m not an American citizen) but, GO MCCAIN!

21:40: First available exit poll from Lancaster county in PA shows Obama ahead.

22:21. 58 seats. Deducting 5% from the Dem margin would give one I guess 56 seats.

22:44 Exits look a bit strange. Possibly oversampling of Democratic and young voters.

22:49 Exits are VERY close in PA, Ohio, FL and NC.

22:50 Bought 10 McCain contracts.

23:03 Correction, estimates may be “adjusted”. Rumours of Obama +15 (which means +10 sounds right)

23:16 Other polls have Obama +4 in Va. (M +1)

23:32 Obama takes an early lead in IN. This was one of few areas where Obama might actually have outperformed exit polls against Hillary.

23:37 HuffPo has exits, taking away 5 points they are:

Florida: O+3
Iowa: M+1 (!)
Missouri: M+1
North Carolina: M+1
New Hampshire: O+9
Nevada: O+5
Pennsylvania: O+10
Ohio: O+5
Wisconsin: O+11
Indiana: M+1
New Mexico: O+8
Minnesota: O+16
Michigan: O+16

23:47. A point of warning regarding IN is that McCain’s and Bush areas of strength don’t match that well. I remember reading a memo in June that said McCain’s strength in PA was radically different from Bush’s. Palin might have changed things a bit but expect McCain to do better in suburban and urban areas than W.

I’d give McCain at 15% chance now. With PA off the cards McCain has to have the luck of the Irish (and it probably will be a 7% BO margin, but I still think the Mac has a chance).

23:53 Gawker exits (w 5% adjustment)

GA M+9
FL M+2
IA O+11
IN M+1
MI O+16
MN O+9
MO M+1
NC M+1
NH O+9
NM O+8
NV O+5
OH O+4
PA O+10
VA O+5
WV M+10
WI O+11

National O+5

Very plausible.

00:07 Graham holds onto Senate seat on exits alone. Good.

00:03 It’s turning out to be slightly lower than most people had expected. Still a small chance McCain could win but it looks like a 5% Obama victory nationally.

00:50 I’m feeling that we’re one call away from the contest ending. However, I’m also feeling the Democrats might be waiting for that call for four years.

01:10 Looks like Obama +5

01:14 PA & NH called for Obama though by MSNBC. I’ll wait to CNN and a red state.

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