Archive for July, 2008

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The McCain surge continues

July 31, 2008

Markets start to reflect reality a little bit more

With Obama less than two points ahead of McCain, there was no way that McCain’s prices could remain in the low 30s. My guess is that after both the conventions McCain’s price will be above 45 and heading up (though it should be around 60 if he was properly valued).

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Obama’s lead is only 1.52%

July 31, 2008

Voters seem not to want Obama but McCain must close the deal

After wall to wall coverage in the press of Obama’s trip, and the shambles that passes for the McCain campaign, John McCain is less than two points behind. My take on the situation is that voters have decided that Obama is simply too inexperienced and too left-liberal for America. However, they do not want a third term of Bush and want some evidence that McCain is strong enough to chart his own course once President. Picking anyone whose second name isn’t Palin, Jindal, Fiorina, Romney or Pawlentry will probably do the trick but there is one choice that could seal victory – namely Joe Lieberman. Although some on the right will gag, if hardcore Republicans are prepared to make their peace with Clinton then they will in the end stomach Lieberman.

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It’s raining Kaine?

July 30, 2008

Why Obama might pick Tim Kaine

To my mind there are only two reasons why Obama might choose Kaine: 1. He will force McCain into choosing his running mate before the convention. 2. To make a pro-choice running mate (such as Lieberman or Giuliani) very difficult. My view is that McCain must stick to his guns and wait until the night of the Republican convention and choose either Lieberman, Ridge or Giuliani.

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McCain surges!

July 29, 2008

It looks like the betting markets are finally seeing sense.

I’ve been critical, make that extremely critical of the McCain campaign, but I’ve never wavered in the idea that McCain should be the favourite. It looks as if John McCain is enjoying a surge in the betting markets to accompany his better poll ratings.

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Sell Romney & Sell Pawlentry

July 29, 2008

A contrarian take on the McCain veepstakes

Adding the intrade prices of Mitt Romney (32-37.9) and Tim Pawlentry (30-35) together allows one to see that the market is pricing the rest of the field at 2/1 (or 3.00). I believe that Romney and Pawlentry and the constant, ‘McCain will choose Romney tomorrow’ or ‘McCain will select Pawlentry later today’, speculation are only smokescreens for someone like Lieberman, Giuliani, Bloomberg or even Rice. If McCain has any sense it would be one of those four and would be announced at the convention to force people to tune in. While the McCain campaign has as unfortunate capacity to shoot itself in the foot, betting against Pawlentry and Romney is a very good idea.

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Playing with fire

July 28, 2008

This is not the way to campaign against Obama.

As everyone knows I’m not a fan of Obama. Indeed, I think McCain needs to get in Obama’s face and hold him to account for his positions. However, this has the potential to badly backfire, or at least take the campaign into a place that would good for neither McCain nor America.

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Obama’s trip to Iraq is good for… McCain?

July 24, 2008

I can’t really add much to the analysis from Hot Air but this must be conclusive evidence that McCain has to make foreign policy the main theme of his campaign, rather than running away from it.