Good news for Obama
My latest projections have
Barack Obama 50.10
John McCain 45.19
This is good news for Obama, but given that his lead over McCain is less than 5% despite the farce of the Paulson “plan”, he still has work to do. For McCain’s part the fact that he has been trending downwards since September 6th, suggests that he needs to do something radical.
An Obama victory
I finally watched the full debate last night when it was shown on British TV I believe that Obama dominated the segment devoted to the economy. Obama looked more Presidential and explained his views in a sober, serious way, without pandering or resorting to cliche. In contrast, McCain did little to distinguish himself from the generic Republican tax cutting position and kept going on about earmarks – which has become the equivalent of his POW record. This is not to say that either his heroism or his opposition to earmarks are unimportant as a lead into a general debate about waste or character, but on their own they are the equivalent of Giuliani’s ability to bring 9/11 into everything.
Although I agree with McCain on foreign policy, I think Obama performed much better up until the bracelet moment. McCain seemed unable to put forward a rationale for staying in Iraq and seemed too focused on specific details rather than the broader picture. I think for the first half hour McCain seemed to be still suffering the consequences of the crowded Republican primary field which meant that he hadn’t experienced any genuine two-way debates. In contrast, as has been mentioned elsewhere, Obama has been clearly reaping the benefits of having to debate against Hillary Clinton.
McCain’s best moment of the night was the bracelet moment – though at one point in the story he seemed close to tears. In it he finally outlined a rationale for staying in Iraq and characterised himself as part of the wider US Army in Vietnam rather than as an individual hero. Obama’s “I have a bracelet too” retort seemed cheap and unpresidential. From then on McCain started to regain confidence and finally began to outperform Obama. If this had been a purely foreign policy debate then McCain would have won on points – although he should have made his key arguments (such as the link between Iraq and Afghanistan) earlier.
However, the polls suggest that most people in the audience were focused on the economy segment, which was created in response to McCain’s stunt. So, I’m going to say that Obama carried the night overall (though not by much).
Doesn’t the above make one feel more secure than McCain/Palin ?
I should probably give up about the whole idea of Palin being booted from the ticket (but then again many people felt the same about McCain this time last year) but I feel the circumstances are so strange and the sense of crisis (although overhyped) is so pervasive that McCain could actually help his campaign by selecting Lieberman, Giuliani, Condi Rice or anyone whose last name is not Palin. My prediction is that McCain wins the debate tonight; he is definitely the better debater (as Saddleback proved) and he is on firm territory (foreign policy). In any case expectations are so low that he could not fail to get better press coverage than he has got in the last twenty-four hours.
‘PDS’ speads to the right
I was horrified by the Palin selection from the moment that I heard that she was going to be McCain’s running mate. Part of this was disappointment that McCain had not chosen Lieberman. However, most of my discontent was shock that someone with her inexperience was chosen in time of crisis, and by a candidate who had pitched his entire campaign on his preparedness for a ‘3am moment’. However, even after the initial shock had worn off I was further taken aback by the constant stream of skeletons that had been tumbling out of her closet.
Now, I am not American and the primary rationale of this website is to provide betting advice. However, it is patently obvious that as well as being unqualified and with a lot of scandals, Palin is also rabidly right-wing to an extent not seen since the third party candidacy of George Wallace in 1968. For the record, I don’t particularly care about her stance on abortion, and I think it is like the European Union in British politics, a topic that is of interest to fewer people than is popularly perceived. However, I still don’t understand how McCain can put a Buchananite, Bircher and all round paleo-conservative a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
It is one thing to support Bush’s tax cuts when they are going to pass anyway and last year’s immigration bill was so watered down that it probably wasn’t worth sacrificing a campaign for. However, like the Iraq War, bailout bill, the appointment of Palin to the vice-presidency will have long term consequences for both America and the world. While McCain was correct on Iraq, he has spectacularly failed on his running mate and on the bailout bill (although his posturing may have actually have ensured that it is delayed). Therefore, McCain needs to take advantage of this crisis to ensure that Palin either retires from the ticket, or is dropped from the ticket. Frankly, at this stage anyone would be preferable to her.
In that respect I think Kathleen Parker is correct to call for her resignation. I think we are going to see a few more calls for her resignation in the next few days
The Bailout seems to be having little impact in the polls
My new projections are:
Barack Obama 46.38
John McCain 44.21
My view is that Obama has missed several open goals over the past fortnight. However, the Palin pick (as opposed to anything else) seems to be the big driving force at the moment, as McCain’s lead peaked in the first week on September and has been consistently (but slowly) declining. My guess is that McCain will find a way to oppose the bailout – doing the right thing for the wrong reason. I’m also going to predict that he’ll do well from tomorrow’s debate since expectations are now rock bottom and – as Saddleback proved – he is quite a good debater.
My views on the McCain stunt
My new projections are:
Barack Obama 49.01
John McCain 46.95
McCain’s gambit is obviously an utter stunt. However (and I am neutral due to the Palin pick) it is important to understand how this plays with the wider population. Granted this could explode in McCain’s face but it is difficult to argue that McCain is doing something fundamentally wrong by putting his duties as a Senator over those as a candidate. Indeed, he would have been well advised to spent a week in the Senate in July having Congress shoot his legislation down. Also, Obama made a massive mistake by not trying to appear ‘above the fray’, it made him look aloof and meant that some of populist anger at the bailout will now be attached to him. This is like Labour’s decision not to make the ERM a campaign issue in 1992 even though the exchange rate was clearly set too high.
I bought back 5 Obama contracts leaving me only short 5. I have $575.50 in cash.
Despite the crisis McCain only trails by 1.77
My new national projections are:
Barack Obama 48.17
John McCain 46.4
(This was produced by putting polls of likely voters through Samplemiser. Campaign polls, polls sponsored by The Daily Kos and overlapping polls are automatically excluded.)
As I said yesterday, the fact that McCain is doing so well despite the bailout and the scandals hitting Sarah Palin is due to the fact that Obama is a very weak candidate and a reflection of his miserable campaign strategy. There have been many times when bipartisanship would have been good for him (and for his country) but when Paulson is trying to defraud the American taxpayer (a tab that other countries will inevitably have to pick up) he needs to grow a backbone and take a stand.
The Senator from Illinois fails to close the deal
My new national projections are:
Barack Obama 48.67
John McCain 47.63
(This was produced by putting polls of likely voters through Samplemiser. Campaign polls and polls sponsored by The Daily Kos are automatically excluded)
Despite a ludicrous bailout, Sarah Palin and the general feeling of chaos Obama is failing to take the lead to any significant degree. This tells us several things:
1. Obama is an intrinsically weak candidate who is not particularly trusted by the American population at large.
2. Despite the growing backlash against the plan Paulson seems to have browbeaten the press and critics into silence.
3. Obama’s decision to stay outside the fray is a massive mistake. McCain’s populist rhetoric might be empty but it is connecting with voters – at least temporarily.
4. The Democrats are in big trouble. There is the possibility that voters will run to McCain’s experience while Congress gets blamed for passing the bailout.
Obama needs to find a consistent strategy and keep hammering the Republicans and McCain over the plan. Being above the fray in an economic crisis does not play well with voters, as the Labour party’s defeat in 1992 demonstrates. Also, the ‘Rapegate’ story is finally being taken up by the media, although it might be overtaken by economic events.
My (hopefully) final thoughts about the bailout
What really annoys me about this is the scaremongering from the press and Paulson. The irony is that things are nowhere near a depression. A technical recession maybe, but even at the nadir last week the money markets were merely as bad as they were in the early 1980s and much better than they were in the 70s. The problem is after twenty years of relative stability, at the first sign of a slowdown people assume that it is 1929 again. This is the first time in history that we are going to bail out the banks long before any of them actually go bankrupt. The irony is that the glut of international regulation that is going to follow Paulson’s socialist folly (nationalised ratings agencies, caps on bonuses, IMF involved in global financial regulation) will make thing permanantly worse.
The Senator from Illinois leads by 0.02%
My new national projections are:
Barack Obama 48
John McCain 47.98
(This was produced by putting polls of likely voters through Samplemiser. Campaign polls and polls sponsored by The Daily Kos are automatically excluded)
In a time of economic turmoil McCain and Obama are essentially tied. I’m not ruling out a Palin implosion (though Troopergrate seems to have been kicked into the long grass) but the election will come down the candidates’ reactions to the bailout. At the moment both candidates have indicated that they have problems with it. However, McCain will have to demonstrate an ability to stand up to his de factor advisor Phil Gramm while Obama will have to get down from his perch and show some fire in his belly. Obama’s links to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac and McCain’s decision to choose Palin, rather than someone who has some experience with these matters, will also come under the spotlight.
Why I think both candidates need to come up with a better response on the bailout
Although I’m generally left-of-centre when it comes to the distribution of a nation’s income, favouring more progressive taxation and government spending on health and education, I am a strong believer in the power of markets to create wealth. Individual responsibility on a personal and corporate level and the primacy of sound money is also vital. Government bailouts should only occur when they are really necessary, taxpayer exposure should be limited (and be able to capture any upside) and any schemes should be temporary, not permanent. It is also imperative that such schemes are scrutinised properly, and that unelected officials are not able to use bipartisanship to ram through legislation that will have far reaching consequences.
Despite what Bernanke and Paulson say, the financial system is going through an uncomfortable, as opposed to a potentially catastrophic, period. Even at the height of the crisis last week, the spread between US inter-bank lending rates and treasuries was comparable to the conditions that existed in the late 1970s and early 1980s. Even the stock market was only barely into ‘bear’ territory. Of course, the fact that Morgan Stanley and even Goldman Sachs are seeking partners might be psychologically disturbing, but the owners (and workers) in these firms are more than adequately compensated for such risk. I am also worried that if this bailout passes in the US there will be a tremendous pressure for a similar programme across in the United Kingdom.
Both McCain and Obama have some good ideas in their responses to the crisis. I greatly admired McCain’s initial opposition to the AIG bailout and Obama’s insistence that any scheme be limited. Neither candidate has indicated that they will be unconditionally supporting the plan. However, Obama’s insistence that this must be a global response is an infringement of everyone’s sovereignty and will turn this into an international boondoggle. At the same time, McCain’s advisors will probably force him to fall into line, just as they did on taxes, immigration and Lieberman. In any case his idea of a new agency will make things even worse. So, I still have to quote Shakespeare and say (again): “A plague on both your houses”.
Why I no longer support McCain
There is no one who I admire more than McCain. However, like De Gaulle (on Petain), I believe that, “John McCain was a great man; he died on August 29 2008’. I agree with a lot of McCain’s ideas including his support for spreading democracy, toleration of immigrants and his belief in fiscal responsibility and businesses standing on their own two feet. As someone who is left of centre on domestic issues it was encouraging to see that he had the sense to initially oppose Bush’s tax cuts. At the same time I was deeply unimpressed with Obama and the way in which the Democratic left had treated Joe Lieberman and even Hillary Clinton (though Clinton was wrong to attribute it to misogyny).
The problem is threefold. McCain’s incredibly botched attempt to get Lieberman on the ticket, revealed that, whatever they might have said last December, the Republican right have a dislike for moderates that is just as great as The Daily Kos. McCain also compounded the problem by capitulating to them and leaving Lieberman out to dry, the latest in a string of such backdowns over taxes, immigration and other issues. Finally, after rejecting one of the few people who could have unified America, McCain decided to select someone who was not only totally inexperienced but a representation of the nastier elements of the Republican Party.
There is no doubt that McCain’s heart is in the right place. His acceptance speech at the convention and his initial opposition to the AIG bailout clearly demonstrated that. However, good intentions are irrelevant unless one is willing to follow through on them. It is clear that McCain has neither the expertise to stand up to Wall Street’s (and Detroit’s) begging bowl, nor the will to stand up to the Republican right on immigration. At the same time the far-right associations, lies and inexperience make Governor Palin one of the most frightening politicians to have emerged on either side of the Atlantic.
Of course, this could all change. If Sarah Palin was forced off the ticket or if McCain actually mustered the courage to oppose Paulson’s plan then he might regain some of his honour. However, even I have to admit that it is unlikely at this stage that the ‘Pitbull with lipstick’ will be replaced with the ‘”friendly little puppy’ (to quote a speech Lieberman made on religion). Also, it is clear that McCain is under the thumb of advisors such as Gramm and Fiorina who will call for more bailouts and more tax cuts for the rich. Of course, given that I am not American, my support doesn’t matter but I would guess that many moderates who previously considered voting for McCain feel likewise.
Why Obama AND McCain are both wrong on the bailout
I don’t usually comment on general current events (not least because (I’m not American) but I have to say that I am disgusted by the Paulson plan. It is not just that the bailout is unecessary (which it is), a blank cheque for Wall Street (which it is) and something that will set a bad precedent (which it also is) but it is depressing that neither Obama nor McCain have the guts to criticise it. Uncritically deferring to Paulson, the person who got America into this mess, is completely unacceptable in a democracy. If this scheme is so necessary why aren’t other countries aping it? A plague on both your houses!
Note: I am posting in a private capacity and my views may not necessarily represent those of my employer or any other institution.
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