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Obama leads by 1.04%

September 22, 2008

The Senator from Illinois fails to close the deal

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 48.67
John McCain 47.63

(This was produced by putting polls of likely voters through Samplemiser. Campaign polls and polls sponsored by The Daily Kos are automatically excluded)

Despite a ludicrous bailout, Sarah Palin and the general feeling of chaos Obama is failing to take the lead to any significant degree. This tells us several things:

1. Obama is an intrinsically weak candidate who is not particularly trusted by the American population at large.

2. Despite the growing backlash against the plan Paulson seems to have browbeaten the press and critics into silence.

3. Obama’s decision to stay outside the fray is a massive mistake. McCain’s populist rhetoric might be empty but it is connecting with voters – at least temporarily.

4. The Democrats are in big trouble. There is the possibility that voters will run to McCain’s experience while Congress gets blamed for passing the bailout.

Obama needs to find a consistent strategy and keep hammering the Republicans and McCain over the plan. Being above the fray in an economic crisis does not play well with voters, as the Labour party’s defeat in 1992 demonstrates. Also, the ‘Rapegate’ story is finally being taken up by the media, although it might be overtaken by economic events.

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