Democratic contest in Texas coming down to a photo finish

… but the Republican contest isn’t close at all.

 

My latest Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

Hillary Clinton 45.67
Barack Obama 45.48

John McCain 57.54
Mike Huckabee 29.18

Evidently, Hillary seems to have a microscopic edge with regards to Texas, although anyone who thinks that they can call this state is either a liar or a charlatan. As I think Hillary Clinton has a 45% chance of winning here, a 80% of winning Ohio and a 80% chance of grabbing the nomination if she manages to carry both, I believe that she has just under a 30% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Huckabee does really have to pray for a miracle.

Obama and McCain are running away with Vermont

McCain and Obama have huge leads in Vermont.

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Vermont:

John McCain 67.32
Mike Huckabee 17.19

Barack Obama 57.33
Hillary Clinton 33.34

Both McCain and Obama seem to have run away with Vermont. Doesn’t seem to be much scope for either Hillary or Huckabee.

Obama leads by 1.37% while McCain leads by 23.34%

Using Samplemiser, I’ve got the following updated projections for Texas

Barack Obama 46.96
Hillary Clinton 45.59

John McCain 55.2
Mike Huckabee 31.86

While McCain cannot be complacent his victory in Texas seems assured. At the same time Hillary and Obama are in a virtual dead heat in the Lone Star state.

McCain cruising in both Ohio and Texas

Good news for Arizona’s Senator

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Texas:

John McCain 54.65
Mike Huckabee 31.75

and Ohio:

John McCain 56.59
Mike Huckabee 29.64

McCain seems to be invulnerable in both Texas and Ohio. The only question is whether he will get the 50% in Texas needed to turn it into a Winner Take All state.

Texas and Ohio come down to the wire on the Democratic side

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Texas:

Barack Obama 46.95
Hillary Clinton 45.44

and Ohio:

Hillary Clinton 48.96
Barack Obama 43.07

Both contests are very fluid and we could very easily see a Clinton comeback, especially since she has a knack of winning closely fought contests.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority of 28

Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.88 (339)
Labour 30.36 (246)
Liberal Democrats 16.95 (34)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.8 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32 LDm 18.4.

The Conservatives seem to have bounced back, although whether this is down to the Cameron effect (Cameron’s exposure in the news being a positive for them even when the news is negative) or a realization that nationalisation may not have been the optimal solution for Northern Rock remains to be seen (I believe it is a bit of both).

Betting Journal: Betting on the GOP in Connecticut

I bought 5 contracts on the Republicans winning in Connecticut. This leaves me with $4.56 in free funds.

McCain ahead by 20.69% in Texas

New SUSA poll extends McCain’s lead

Incorporating the latest SUSA poll, my latest Samplemiser projections (for the Republican contest only) are:

John McCain 53.95
Mike Huckabee 33.26

McCain seems pretty invulnerable in Texas. However, he needs to campaign hard if he is going to be sure of getting the majority needed to turn Texas into a Winner Take All state.

Obama surges into the lead in Texas

Obama overtakes Clinton, Mccain still ahead of Huckabee by over 15%.

Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Texas:

John McCain 51.27
Mike Huckabee 35.05

Barack Obama 49.24
Hillary Clinton 44.87

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee is clearly far behind McCain, although McCain might not get enough votes to make Texas a Winner Take All state (he needs 50%). However, the story of the day is clearly that Obama is now ahead of Hillary. The only sliver of hope for Hillary is that the early voters voted overwhelmingly for her. I am now reducing Hillary’s chances to 25% and seriously considering my position in her.

Obama and Huckabee gain in Ohio

Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Ohio:

John McCain 53.6
Mike Huckabee 31.96

Hillary Clinton 48.97
Barack Obama 41.36

Both Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee seem to have pulled back in recent days. However, the fact remains that John McCain and Hillary Clinton have leads of over 20% and 7% respectively. While it is emminently possible for Obama to overtake Hillary, Ohio seems a lost cause for Mike Huckabee.

Betting Journal: Buying Hillary

I bought 20 more contracts on Hillary winning the Democratic nomination. After all, she is still ahead in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island and actually leads in some of the national polls.

Good news for both Hillary and McCain in Ohio

Hillary re-extends her lead in Ohio while McCain leads by over 33 points.

Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Ohio:

John McCain 55.74
Mike Huckabee 22.45

Hillary Clinton 48.24
Barack Obama 39.76

Hillary’s lead in Ohio seems to be solid, indicating that she could yet pull off an amazing comeback. Rememeber that, after Superdelegates are factored in, Hillary only trails Obama by a few delegates. On the Republican side support for Huckabee seems to be sliding, though McCain cannot take even a 30+% lead for granted.

Hillary and McCain lead in Rhode Island

Projections for the lesser known March 4th state.

Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following projections for Rhode Island:

Hillary Clinton 50.97
Barack Obama 39.27

The projections for the GOP field (which are based on one poll) are:
John McCain 65
Mike Huckabee 18

Hillary seems to enjoy a comfortable lead in RI, while McCain only needs to fight complacency there.

Clinton’s Ohio leads falls to below 5%

Obama advances on Clinton in Ohio.

Using Samplemiser, I have produced the following updated projections for Ohio:

Hillary Clinton 48.22
Barack Obama 43.30

Hillary Clinton’s lead in Ohio is now crumbling and is no longer comfortable. Barack Obama could be firmly in the lead by the end of next week, in which case it would be game over for Clinton.

Bought 25 contracts on a GOP Victory

I bought 25 contracts on the Republican re-taking the White House. This left me with $60.41 in ready cash.