Archive for February, 2008

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Democratic contest in Texas coming down to a photo finish

February 29, 2008

… but the Republican contest isn’t close at all.

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My latest Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

Hillary Clinton 45.67
Barack Obama 45.48

John McCain 57.54
Mike Huckabee 29.18

Evidently, Hillary seems to have a microscopic edge with regards to Texas, although anyone who thinks that they can call this state is either a liar or a charlatan. As I think Hillary Clinton has a 45% chance of winning here, a 80% of winning Ohio and a 80% chance of grabbing the nomination if she manages to carry both, I believe that she has just under a 30% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Huckabee does really have to pray for a miracle.

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Obama and McCain are running away with Vermont

February 28, 2008

McCain and Obama have huge leads in Vermont.

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Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Vermont:

John McCain 67.32
Mike Huckabee 17.19

Barack Obama 57.33
Hillary Clinton 33.34

Both McCain and Obama seem to have run away with Vermont. Doesn’t seem to be much scope for either Hillary or Huckabee.

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Obama leads by 1.37% while McCain leads by 23.34%

February 28, 2008

Using Samplemiser, I’ve got the following updated projections for Texas

Barack Obama 46.96
Hillary Clinton 45.59

John McCain 55.2
Mike Huckabee 31.86

While McCain cannot be complacent his victory in Texas seems assured. At the same time Hillary and Obama are in a virtual dead heat in the Lone Star state.

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McCain cruising in both Ohio and Texas

February 27, 2008

Good news for Arizona’s Senator

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Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Texas:

John McCain 54.65
Mike Huckabee 31.75

and Ohio:

John McCain 56.59
Mike Huckabee 29.64

McCain seems to be invulnerable in both Texas and Ohio. The only question is whether he will get the 50% in Texas needed to turn it into a Winner Take All state.

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Texas and Ohio come down to the wire on the Democratic side

February 27, 2008

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Texas:

Barack Obama 46.95
Hillary Clinton 45.44

and Ohio:

Hillary Clinton 48.96
Barack Obama 43.07

Both contests are very fluid and we could very easily see a Clinton comeback, especially since she has a knack of winning closely fought contests.

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British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority of 28

February 27, 2008

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Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.88 (339)
Labour 30.36 (246)
Liberal Democrats 16.95 (34)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.8 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32 LDm 18.4.

The Conservatives seem to have bounced back, although whether this is down to the Cameron effect (Cameron’s exposure in the news being a positive for them even when the news is negative) or a realization that nationalisation may not have been the optimal solution for Northern Rock remains to be seen (I believe it is a bit of both).

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Betting Journal: Betting on the GOP in Connecticut

February 27, 2008

I bought 5 contracts on the Republicans winning in Connecticut. This leaves me with $4.56 in free funds.