Veepstakes: My final take

My final thoughts on the Veepstakes

For the Republicans I am going to stick with McCain choosing Lieberman. Call me idealistic, call me presumptuous but McCain clearly wants to choose Lieberman and if there is a story about this contest it is about McCain choosing Lieberman. From McCain’s reference to John Lewis (which was a reference to Lieberman’s Civil Rights record) and Lieberman’s confession that he made a mistake about Alito (though if it wasn’t for him and the Gange of Fourteen there wouldn’t be an Alito), they are preparing to run. However, life is not an episode of West Wing, and even then Vinnick lost, so if while I’m sticking to Lieberman it might well be Pawlentry. McCain is not going to choose youth (Jindal, Palin, Cantor etc), money (Fiorina, Whitman) nor is the pick going to some pro-choice governor (Ridge, Lingle, Rell). Romney would be a bit too humiliating and Thompson, Rice and Huckabee don’t particularly want it (though it would be nice to see how long the NRO crowd maintained their pro-life position in the face of a Huckabee or a Graham pick). So it is going to be either Lieberman, Pawlentry or Giuliani. Kasich or Hutchinson might be a long-shot.

The Democrat pick is irrelevant since the public clearly don’t want Obama but they want a Democrat. My guess is that he will choose Biden, Hillary or Richardson. Richardson would nail down Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada and make McCain’s life difficult so I bet Richardson will be considered. However, unless Obama chooses someone who is pro-life, the pick will not be that important. My choice (if I supported Obama, though I don’t) would be Ken Salazar. Salazar supported the War in Iraq and is a moderate but if Obama had listened to me he wouldn’t have adopted the positions or the strategy that he did. If it is going to be a ‘headfake’ it will be Warner. Gilmore is so inept that Warner could bow out without endangering the Democrats’ chance of creating two Virginia Senators.

Why McCain shouldn’t take the pledge

Why a one-term pledge would be a bad idea

According to this article Mark Salter, McCain’s speechwriter and confident, has claimed that the idea of McCain pledging to serve only one term, if elected, was discussed last year. The idea of a one-term pledge has been applauded by various people who have stated that, ‘it would be a brilliant thing for him to announce he means to be a one-term president’ and ‘I think he should do something dramatic: Renounce ambition for a second term’. I have to say that I think such a pledge would be a mistake. Although it would get a lot of short-term publicity, this would merely concede one of the Democrats’ main talking points, that McCain is too old to be an effective president, and it would enable Obama to run as the candidate with a vision.. More importantly, it would also seem as if McCain is not going to accomplish anything too significant or too controversial during his presidency, lest he be accused of not being around to face the consequences of his decision, which why both libertarians and many on the Republican right favour the idea.

Indeed, the reason why Bush’s personal ratings have been so dismal is that, with the exception of the surge, which was more down to pressure from John McCain and Joe Lieberman, he has refused to push any sort of agenda. Indeed, Mike Huckabee was correct in asserting that Bush has adopted, what Huckabee characterised as a ‘a bunker mentality’, though this is in the sense of refusing to defend his policies, rather than the point Huckabee was trying to make about his foreign policy. On the contrary McCain needs to rule out any sort of pledge and map out an ambitious domestic and foreign policy agenda. The only upside of such a pledge would be that it would make it extremely unlikely that Romney or Huckabee would be on the ticket, since social and economic conservatives would simply not tolerate Romney and Huckabee respectively being given such a leg up in 2012.

Because of the speculation these revelations will produce McCain needs to formally rule such a pledge out and state that he will consider two term. However, it could be that that McCain’s staff are trying to give such a pledge informally without having to spell it out. In this case McCain’s would still need to formally rule out such a pledge, but the leak would be used to ‘wink’ at supporters of the defeated candidates, including Hillary supporters that they can vote for him safe in the knowledge that their candidate can have another shot at Pennsylvania Avenue in four year time. At the expense of banging a drum that is pretty damaged, for this dual strategy to work McCain would also need to select a Vice-President who would not be a serious contender for the Presidency in 2012, which by implication excludes; Palin, Jindal and others. In this case, I wonder if a pro-choice, liberal hawk from Connecticut, who proved in 2000 and 2004 that he is a bad a presidential campaigner as he is a good running mate, might fit the bill?

Huckabee shoots himself in the foot…

… and his chances of being VP in the head

Huckabee’s shocking joke about Obama avoiding an assassin has pretty much put paid to his  (already slim) chances of becoming McCain’s running mate. I always though the Huckabee as VP rumours were more about reminding fiscal conservatives that there were far worse things than a ticket with Condi/Lieberman/Crist on the bottom than a serious idea in itself (I consider the ‘Romney as VP’ rumours to have been the same for social conservatives). I have to say that although I believe he would have made a poor Republican candidate, I respected Huckabee right up until he tried to reinvent himself as a less crazy version of Pat Buchanan, with his pandering to the minutemen and his stance on the Confedarate flag.

Road to the Naval Observatory: GOP Veepstakes

The Runners and Riders in the GOP Veepstakes

Here is my form book for the GOP Veepstakes:

The favourite

1. Joe Lieberman – Lieberman is popular with independents, conservative democrats, liberal republicans and certain sections of the religious right. He would guarantee at least 2-3% nationally and steal several news cycles. His role in registering voters in Mississippi in the 60s gives him the credibility to attack Obama on the issues without racist dog-whistling or challenging anybody to a duel. He also wins over many of the national security voters who disagree with McCain in issues like immigration. However, it is uncertain as to whether the Republican party is ready for a pro-choice former Democrat, although neither the Republican party nor the electorate at large got the message in 1980 and 84. Chances are about 40% (2.50).

Runners-up

2-3. Tom Ridge – Popular moderate former governor of an important swing state. Would add to McCain’s national security credentials. Endorsed McCain during the primaries. However, his pro-choice views might cause some problems. Chances are about 10% (10).

2-3. Tim Pawlentry – Early ally of John McCain and touted as possible running mate for a long time. Governor of winnable state (Minnesota) while respected by the right. However, his support wasn’t able to win the day in the Minnesota primary. Chances are about 10% (10).

Still in with a shout

4-5. John Huntsman Jr – Business experience and experience as US trade representative helps McCain in economic matters while support for expanded health care coverage helps McCain on this issue. Win LDS support in MO and NV without alienating Evangelicals. Has access to vast personal wealth. The look on Mitt Romney’s face alone would make Huntsman’s selection worthwhile. Chances are about 7.5% (12.5).

4-5. Condi Rice – Apart from Lieberman (and possibly) Giuliani, Condi is the only person who can re-frame Wrightgate around the issue of national security. Her candidacy would also be groundbreaking, and open up the African-American vote if Hilary Clinton manages to somehow win the nomination. She is relatively young and so would be an ideal compliment to McCain. Could also help McCain in California. However, her coldness and her association with Bush reduce her chances considerably. Chances are about 7.5% (12.5)

Real long-shots

6-10. Rudolph Giuliani – Giuliani would help McCain in the North-East and the two are obviously friendly. Wrightgate plays into Giuliani’s hands, although having the campaign picketed by firefighters would be a double edged sword. Evangelical voters might not accept this ticket and Giuliani Partners remains a huge skeleton in the closet, potentially on a par with ‘Wrightgate’. Chances are about 4% (25)

6-10. Mike Huckabee – Would help McCain with social conservatives and values voters. McCain obviously prefers him to Romney. However, he failed to win over any blue collar voters in Michigan and his extreme social conservatism would ailenate independants. Does McCain really want to run with someone who wrapped himself in the Confederate Flag? Chances are about 4% (25)

6-10. Charlie Crist – Crist is a very popular governor of an important swing state (Florida). He is also moderate and personable and he endorsed McCain before Florida voted. He also prosecuted telecoms companies as Florida’s Attorney General. However, rumours about his private life might prove a distraction. Good relations with the African-American community will be a bonus if Hillary is the Democratic nominee. He also spent less than five years in major state government posts (although he served in various posts four another four years). There are also questions about his involvement in fraud investigation. Chances are about 4% (25).

6-10. Mitt Romney – He is the chosen candidate of the fiscal right and adds business experience to the ticket. If the convention were settled in the back room he would be odds on to be the candidate. However, he performed poorly in his home turf, losing to McCain in New Hampshire, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut….need I say more? Seriously, McCain doesn’t need someone who ailenates both the religious right and moderates. Meghan McCain interview suggested rift between McCain and Romney camps hasn’t really healed. Also what can a one term governor with a negative approval rating really bring to the ticket? Chances are about 4% (25).

6-10. Rob Portman – The man behind the famous ‘experience of telecommunications’ statement. According to Bob Novak Portman is on McCain’s shortlist. Chances are about 4% (25).

Others: There is always the possibility of a complete unknown or a non-politician (such as Carly Fiorina or David Petraeus). There is also the possibility of another Democrat crossing party lines.

Final Projections for Texas and Ohio (R)

Will this man be tucking into the sweet taste of victory tonight?

My final Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

John McCain 56.23
Mike Huckabee 31.69
Ron Paul 6.39

My projections for Ohio:

John McCain 57.97
Mike Huckabee 28.6
Ron Paul 6.89

The projections are pretty much unchanged, with McCain miles ahead of Huckabee and Paul.

Could there be an upset in Rhode Island?

Clinton’s margin in Rhode Island seems to be falling

My latest Samplemiser projections for Rhode Island are (GOP projections based on one poll):

Hillary Clinton 43.53
Barack Obama 37.51

John McCain 65
Mike Huckabee 18

My projections for Vermont are (unchanged from the last time):

Barack Obama 57.02
Hillary Clinton 33.34

John McCain 67.32
Mike Huckabee 17.19

Hillary Clinton seems to leading in Rhode Island while Obama is ahead in Vermont. However, Hillary’s margin is falling in Rhode Island, so we could possibly see an upset on the cards.

Hillary leads in both Ohio and Texas

Bad news for both the ‘Audacity of Hope’ and the ‘other man from Hope’

My latest Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

Hillary Clinton 48.81
Barack Obama 46.71

John McCain 55.57
Mike Huckabee 33.55

My projections for Ohio are:

Hillary Clinton 53.45
Barack Obama 42.77

John McCain 57.89
Mike Huckabee 28.22

Hillary Clinton seems to leading in both Texas and Ohio. However, although Ohio seems pretty safe for her, Texas is still on a knife-edge. Because of the strange hybrid system it is possible (indeed probable) that even if she wins the primary she could still come out of Texas with fewer delegates than Barack Obama. In both Ohio and Texas John McCain seems to be winning by a landslide.

Hillary has a solid lead in Ohio

My latest Samplemiser projections for Ohio are:

Hillary Clinton 50.22
Barack Obama 43.50

John McCain 56.24
Mike Huckabee 28.60

The Ohio contest seems to be going Clinton’s and McCain’s way. This would seem to make Texas, not Ohio, the pivotal state in deciding ‘mini-Tuesday’ (and therefore the nomination). I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, whenever Hillary Clinton has been able to have a clean fight with Obama without shooting herself in the foot (e.g. New Hampshire, Nevada and California) she has come out on top, with her losses being in state’s where she has to relay on wholesale politics or where she has made a huge gaffe.

Obama leads by a nose in Texas

Good news for the Senator from Illinois

My latest Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

Barack Obama 46.79
Hillary Clinton 45.03

John McCain 57.74
Mike Huckabee 30.42

The Texas contest seems to be really going down to the wire, this time with Obama marginally ahead. The Republican projections still seem to be indicating a McCain landslide. These projections are based on the collection of polls at pollster.com (excluding any polls not based on a sample of likely voters). To read more about Samplemiser read this.

Clinton leads by 5.25% in Ohio

Will the NAFTA debacle spell doom for Obama’s candidacy?

My latest Samplemiser projections for Ohio are:

Hillary Clinton 49.17
Barack Obama 43.92

John McCain 59.07
Mike Huckabee 25.02

Hillary’s lead, which had been in danger of totally evaporating is now starting to looking significant, if not completely comfortable. One explanation for this sudden reveral might be the controversial advert on national security that she ran or the fact that Barack Obama’s spokesman apparently approached the Canadian embassy and told them that his anti-NAFTA was phoney. In any case its a good time to bet on Hilllary in Ohio.

Democratic contest in Texas coming down to a photo finish

… but the Republican contest isn’t close at all.

 

My latest Samplemiser projections for Texas are:

Hillary Clinton 45.67
Barack Obama 45.48

John McCain 57.54
Mike Huckabee 29.18

Evidently, Hillary seems to have a microscopic edge with regards to Texas, although anyone who thinks that they can call this state is either a liar or a charlatan. As I think Hillary Clinton has a 45% chance of winning here, a 80% of winning Ohio and a 80% chance of grabbing the nomination if she manages to carry both, I believe that she has just under a 30% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. On the Republican side, Huckabee does really have to pray for a miracle.

Obama and McCain are running away with Vermont

McCain and Obama have huge leads in Vermont.

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Vermont:

John McCain 67.32
Mike Huckabee 17.19

Barack Obama 57.33
Hillary Clinton 33.34

Both McCain and Obama seem to have run away with Vermont. Doesn’t seem to be much scope for either Hillary or Huckabee.

Obama leads by 1.37% while McCain leads by 23.34%

Using Samplemiser, I’ve got the following updated projections for Texas

Barack Obama 46.96
Hillary Clinton 45.59

John McCain 55.2
Mike Huckabee 31.86

While McCain cannot be complacent his victory in Texas seems assured. At the same time Hillary and Obama are in a virtual dead heat in the Lone Star state.

McCain cruising in both Ohio and Texas

Good news for Arizona’s Senator

Using Samplemiser, I’ve produced the following projections for Texas:

John McCain 54.65
Mike Huckabee 31.75

and Ohio:

John McCain 56.59
Mike Huckabee 29.64

McCain seems to be invulnerable in both Texas and Ohio. The only question is whether he will get the 50% in Texas needed to turn it into a Winner Take All state.

McCain ahead by 20.69% in Texas

New SUSA poll extends McCain’s lead

Incorporating the latest SUSA poll, my latest Samplemiser projections (for the Republican contest only) are:

John McCain 53.95
Mike Huckabee 33.26

McCain seems pretty invulnerable in Texas. However, he needs to campaign hard if he is going to be sure of getting the majority needed to turn Texas into a Winner Take All state.