Archive for the ‘Betting journal’ Category

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(Nearly) Closing down my Obama short

September 23, 2008

I bought back 5 Obama contracts leaving me only short 5. I have $575.50 in cash.

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Selling the GOP

September 16, 2008

I’ve been in a state of shock this past fortnight, so I failed to properly update my trading journal. I sold all my contracts on the GOP winning and partially closed my short positon on Obama losing. At the moment I have $552.50 in cash, with my only significant position being short 10 contracts of Obama.

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Betting Journal: Marking to market

June 12, 2008

TPT marks his betting journal to market

I have decided to mark my contracts to market to give my readers an objective idea of how I am doing. I am using the last traded price as the ‘market’ price and I am avoiding any of the contracts that are of only fractional value and highly illiquid. My estimation is that of today, I have $629.75 in combined cash and assets, which is a return of more than 25% (actually 25.95%) since September 2007. The main contracts are: McCain to win the GOP nomination (worth $370.11), A Republican to become President (worth $114.24), Obama not to become President ($65.96), one of the ‘field’ to become Obama’s running mate (worth $30.80), James Webb to become Obama’s running mate ($20.20), the ‘field’ to take the White House ($7.20), the GOP to retake the house ($3.60), Mark Warner to become Obama’s running mate ($3.20) and $14.40 in cash.

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Betting Journal: Selling Clinton

June 4, 2008

I just sold half of my contracts on Clinton being the next Democratic nominee. This has increased my free cash level to $9.49.

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Betting Journal: Bought Seven More Contracts on the GOP

March 14, 2008

I have bought seven more contracts on the GOP winning in November. This has left me with $3.32 in spare cash in my account.

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Selling short Obama in Texas

March 4, 2008

I sold short three contract on Obama winning in Texas. This left me with $0.36 in liquid cash.

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Betting Journal: buying 5 contracts on the GOP in CT

March 2, 2008

I have bought 5 contracts on the Republican party winning in Connecticut. I believe that if McCain faces up against Barack Obama, or he selects Joe Lieberman as his running mate, he could have at least a 50% chance of winning there.