9 Predictions for 2008

10 Predictions for 2008

1. Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucus…..
2. …but John McCain will win in New Hampshire
3…..and in South Carolina.
4. Different candidates will be declared the winner in the official results and in the ‘Entrance Poll’.
5. Barack Obama will NOT be the Democratic nominee for President.
6. Joe Lieberman will be nominated for the second spot on the Republican ticket.
7. The Democrats will nominate James Webb for Vice President.
8. Either Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg will run for President.
8. There will be either an internal challenge to Gordon Brown or a surprise election.
9. A EU constitution referendum will be called this year in the UK.

Huckabee back in the lead as Iowa goes down to the wire

McCain looks to be heading for a weak third

My latest projection (based on the latest Zogby poll) is: Huckabee 28.72, Romney 27.33, McCain 12.67, Thompson 7.15, Giuliani and Paul 7.08. It goes without saying that if these projections were repeated in the polling Giuliani and Thompson would be dead. For what it is worth, my guess is that Romney still has the edge and he is about 50% (as against 45% for Huckabee) to win the caucus.

Romney leads in Iowa with McCain in third

Romney leads Huckabee by 0.42%.

Incorperating the CNN poll into my collection and filtering it through Samplemiser produces the following projection;

Romney 28.32 Huckabee 27.9 McCain 11.11 Thompson 8.29 Giuliani and Paul 7.69 each

. This strongly suggests that Fred Thompson is really out of contention and we can expect to see him withdraw (and endorse McCain).

Iowa polls remain in flux

Can we really trust the last few polls?

Adding the Research 2000 polls to the mix and then filtering them produces the following projections: Huckabee 31.23 Romney 26.76 Thompson 12.68 McCain 11.17 Giuliani 6.01 Paul 5.05. Certainly, the recent polls have confirmed that the contest between Huckabee and Romney is pretty tight and that McCain has been boosted into at least fouth place. However, unless Thompson’s Christmas adverts have greatly boosted him, the last three post-Christmas polls contradict the ARG polls.

Thompson surges while McCain and Giuliani both stumble

Polls indicate that Thompson is starting to catch up with the leaders – but are they right?

Adding the Bloomberg and Strategic Vision polls to my collection and filtering them just adds to the following projections: Mike Huckabee 29.45 Mitt Romney 26.61 Fred Thompson 13.78 John McCain 13.36 Rudy Giuliani 4.4 Ron Paul 3.76. The only thing that is consistant with my previous projections is that McCain is ahead of Giuliani and Huckabee is only slightly ahead of Romney. Because all the other poll results are so divergent I’m half inclined to ignore these two polls and wait for some surveys that were not conducted over Boxing day. In any case this should help Thompson in his quest to raise enough funds to keep his ads on the air.

Betting Journal: Betting on a Thompson withdrawal.

Last night I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and bought 2 contracts on him dropping out of the contest. Given the next post this might not have been the wisest decision.

Continuing to draw down Thompson and build up Giuliani

I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and added 10 more contracts of Giuliani.

Handicapping the Hawkeye State

TPT looks at the Iowa caucus

 

Incredibly, the caucus has turned into a four way contest with McCain and even Giuliani having a shot at victory.

Mitt Romney – I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that Huckabee’s lead will not hold as it has been pretty consistently trending downwards, making Romney the favourite. It is very important to remember that Romney has the money and the organisation to pull off a victory in Iowa if Huckabee does slip up. Chances of winning are about 37.5%. Price on Intrade 30-35.3.

Mike Huckabee – Although Huckabee is still in the lead it is melting rapidly. The fact that he has failed to raise significant amounts of money, despite his meteoric rise in the polls, is indicative of the fact that he is just not seen as a credible candidate by enough people. With the general unpopularity of Romney and his support from evangelical voters Huckabee should be at least 10% ahead. If Huckabee manages to win it, and he could still pull it off, it will definitely be by fewer than 5%. Today’s tragic events in Pakistan will again highlight the one area in which he has little experience in and probably accelerate his decline. Chances of winning the caucus are 35%. Intrade price 56.0-59.9.

John McCain – The very fact that I am bothering to talk about his chances shows how far he has come in these past few weeks. If he could only get another push from somewhere (such as an endorsement from Fred Thompson) he could have a serious chance of pulling off the impossible and actually winning the thing. The assassination of Bhutto will also put national security and foreign policy at the forefront of voters’ minds. However, it would be hard pressed to find a state that is more inhospitable to a hawkish and economically centrist candidate. Chances of winning the caucus are 15%. Intrade price 3.7-8.9.

Rudolph Giuliani – If a McCain victory will be an amazing turnaround then a Giuliani victory would be even more astounding. However, Giuliani is beginning to climb in the polls and he is less than 10% away from the leader in Iowa. The crisis in Pakistan could lead people to rally around the man who is perceived (probably wrongly in my opinion) as the candidate with the strongest national security and foreign policy credentials. Chances of winning the caucus are 10% Intrade price 0.40-0.9.

Fred Thompson – After the twists and the turns of this contest I’m not going to write anyone off (except Ron Paul of course) until they actually withdraw. This is the only thing stopping me from pronouncing the time of death of the Thompson campaign. Let’s face facts, after an advertising blitz he’s well behind Ron Paul in the polls. Chances of winning the caucus are a nominal 2.5%. Intrade price 1.5-2.8.

So, at the moment, the value is with John McCain, Rudolph Giuliani and (to a much lesser extent) Mitt Romney. There is also a lot of value in shorting Mike Huckabee and Ron Paul.

NOTE: Although the horrible events of today will obviously have an impact both on the contests it is important to understand that there are more important things than who will win the Iowa caucuses. As Senator John McCain states, ‘My deepest condolences go out to the family and supporters of this remarkable woman, an individual who paid the ultimate price for her embrace of moderation and rejection of extremism.

Betting Journal: Sold Thompson Bought Giuliani

I bought 17 contracts on Giuliani winning in Iowa and started to draw down my Fred Thompson position, selling 2 contracts. My total liquid cash is now $0.29.

Can Huckabee hold off Romney, McCain and even Giuliani?

Iowa gets even more interesting.

Putting the latest ARG poll into my collection and filtering it through Samplemiser produces the following results: Huckabee 23.69 Romney 20.78 McCain 17.03 Giuliani 13.86 Paul 9.62 Thompson 3.06. This poll must obviously be taken with a large pinch of salt because many of Huckabee (and Romney’s) supporters might have been underrepresented due the fact that the poll was taken only two days before Christmas. However, if it is true it seems that could be four possible winners in Iowa and that it is quite possible that John McCain may know whether he can start considering his vice-presidential choice or think about life after politics until all the precincts report. My view is that Huckabee is in serious trouble as it is clear that his lead is melting like a snowman in Florida while McCain needs to watch his back and ensure that he doesn’t finish behind Giuliani. The only consolation for the ‘other man from Hope’ is that this poll was conducted after Tancredo’s endorsement.

On the other hand, although I don’t like to write politicians off, I think that Fred Thompson needs to face reality and get out while his endorsement can translate into a future cabinet post. My guess is that we will see him endorsing John McCain in the next few days.

Merry Christmas from The Political Tipster

TPT goes on Christmas hiatus

The Political Tipster will be resuming election commentary on the day after Boxing Day (December 27th). Have a Merry Christmas!

Why Hillary should be smiling (for now)

Hillary Clinton leads in both the filtered figures and the adjusted projections.

 

Adding the latest polls, up to and including the ARG poll (but excluding the Insider Advantage poll) produces the following results: Hillary Clinton 28.9 Barack Obama 26.42 John Edwards 20.22 Joseph Biden 7.32 and Bill Richardson 6.7. Using the previous assumptions (Clinton, Edwards and Obama lose 25% of their votes and Richardson and Biden lose 50%, Edwards & Obama voters go to Clinton, Clinton voters split equally between Edwards & Obama, Richardson voters go to Clinton, Biden voters to Obama and Undecideds to Edwards) we get Clinton 36.69, Edwards 27.70, Obama 27.09, Biden 3.66 and Richardson 3.35.

Filtered Polling Data: Conservative majority 72

Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 43.07 Labour 31.04 Liberal Democrats 15.93. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 68 Given that a poll in tomorrow’s Guardian will announce a much closer result (although the detailed data needed for a projection is not yet available) this result should be regarded as provisional.

Everything to play for in Iowa

Huckabee re-establishes his lead, McCain moves into third and Thompson is left stranded.

Inputting the latest polls into Samplemiser produces the following projections: Huckabee 28.82 Romney 19.04 McCain 17.34 Giuliani 12.3 Thompson 5.47 Paul 4.2. If these polls were repeated today (which they won’t be) Romney would pretty much be finished, Thomspon would have to immediately withdraw and McCain would be breaking out the champagne. I don’t like to tempt fate but don’t be surprised if Fred Thompson withdraws in the next few days and endorses John McCain.

Ron Paul continues to fall

The markets continue to move against Ron Paul.

 

The REP.NH.PAUL contract is now trading at 11-13.9, with the last traded price 11. This suggests that in the battle between the Paulites and those who have a slightly more realistic view of the congressman’s chances (i.e that they are close to zero) the latter are winning. However, there is still value left in shorting Ron Paul.