Archive for December, 2007

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9 Predictions for 2008

December 31, 2007

10 Predictions for 2008

1. Mitt Romney will win the Iowa caucus…..
2. …but John McCain will win in New Hampshire
3…..and in South Carolina.
4. Different candidates will be declared the winner in the official results and in the ‘Entrance Poll’.
5. Barack Obama will NOT be the Democratic nominee for President.
6. Joe Lieberman will be nominated for the second spot on the Republican ticket.
7. The Democrats will nominate James Webb for Vice President.
8. Either Ron Paul or Michael Bloomberg will run for President.
8. There will be either an internal challenge to Gordon Brown or a surprise election.
9. A EU constitution referendum will be called this year in the UK.

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Huckabee back in the lead as Iowa goes down to the wire

December 31, 2007

McCain looks to be heading for a weak third

My latest projection (based on the latest Zogby poll) is: Huckabee 28.72, Romney 27.33, McCain 12.67, Thompson 7.15, Giuliani and Paul 7.08. It goes without saying that if these projections were repeated in the polling Giuliani and Thompson would be dead. For what it is worth, my guess is that Romney still has the edge and he is about 50% (as against 45% for Huckabee) to win the caucus.

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Romney leads in Iowa with McCain in third

December 30, 2007

Romney leads Huckabee by 0.42%.

Incorperating the CNN poll into my collection and filtering it through Samplemiser produces the following projection;

Romney 28.32 Huckabee 27.9 McCain 11.11 Thompson 8.29 Giuliani and Paul 7.69 each

. This strongly suggests that Fred Thompson is really out of contention and we can expect to see him withdraw (and endorse McCain).

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Iowa polls remain in flux

December 29, 2007

Can we really trust the last few polls?

Adding the Research 2000 polls to the mix and then filtering them produces the following projections: Huckabee 31.23 Romney 26.76 Thompson 12.68 McCain 11.17 Giuliani 6.01 Paul 5.05. Certainly, the recent polls have confirmed that the contest between Huckabee and Romney is pretty tight and that McCain has been boosted into at least fouth place. However, unless Thompson’s Christmas adverts have greatly boosted him, the last three post-Christmas polls contradict the ARG polls.

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Thompson surges while McCain and Giuliani both stumble

December 28, 2007

Polls indicate that Thompson is starting to catch up with the leaders – but are they right?

fred_thompson_lobbying.jpg

Adding the Bloomberg and Strategic Vision polls to my collection and filtering them just adds to the following projections: Mike Huckabee 29.45 Mitt Romney 26.61 Fred Thompson 13.78 John McCain 13.36 Rudy Giuliani 4.4 Ron Paul 3.76. The only thing that is consistant with my previous projections is that McCain is ahead of Giuliani and Huckabee is only slightly ahead of Romney. Because all the other poll results are so divergent I’m half inclined to ignore these two polls and wait for some surveys that were not conducted over Boxing day. In any case this should help Thompson in his quest to raise enough funds to keep his ads on the air.

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Betting Journal: Betting on a Thompson withdrawal.

December 28, 2007

Last night I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and bought 2 contracts on him dropping out of the contest. Given the next post this might not have been the wisest decision.

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Continuing to draw down Thompson and build up Giuliani

December 27, 2007

I sold 4 more contracts of Fred Thompson and added 10 more contracts of Giuliani.