Huckabee price gets stronger

According to an eyeball of the precinct on CNN Republican turnout seems weaker.

Still sticking with my opinion but there seems to be more substance behind the Huckabee price than the Obama price. However, I am keeping my Romney position on.

Huckabee back in the lead as Iowa goes down to the wire

McCain looks to be heading for a weak third

My latest projection (based on the latest Zogby poll) is: Huckabee 28.72, Romney 27.33, McCain 12.67, Thompson 7.15, Giuliani and Paul 7.08. It goes without saying that if these projections were repeated in the polling Giuliani and Thompson would be dead. For what it is worth, my guess is that Romney still has the edge and he is about 50% (as against 45% for Huckabee) to win the caucus.

The GOP Veepstakes

Who will be in line for the ‘bucket of warm spit’?

I’m going to recap who I think would be the best in terms of winning the election and who is most likely for each of the Republican nominees:

John McCain: The most obvious choice in both respects would be the Independent Democrat Senator from Connecticut, Joseph Lieberman. Although I think McCain should not even consider anyone else, and I discount both Lieberman’s and McCain’s attempts to straight-bat the question about a possible ticket, if I had to suggest another candidate I would plump for Tom Ridge. Ridge, has executive and cabinet level experience, while he could put Pennsylvania in the Republican column.

Rudolph Giuliani: Giuliani will have two main objectives; picking someone who can prevent a full scale revolt from values voters and someone who can energise the South. This means that, as much as he would like a Giuliani/Lieberman ticket he will choose someone who is clearly pro-life. My guess it that either Sarah Palin, Mark Sanford or even Mike Huckabee would help in that respect. My guts tell me that the latter two would be most likely.

Mike Huckabee: Huckabee’s only hope of winning is to pick someone with foreign policy experience, someone who can enhance his prove ability to win African-American votes and someone who is pro-choice. The candidate who comes mind is the person who turned down both Bill Clinton and Robert Dole, former Secretary of State Colin Powell. Powell, with some justification, has been extremely leery about running and may have no wish to be at the wrong end of a landslide. Huckabee could also be pressured into selecting Olympia Snowe or even Condoleezza Rice.

Mitt Romney. Romney will inherit the animosity of a large section of the Republican party. My guess is that he will try to build bridges by reaching out to either McCain or Huckabee. However, even though Romney will have them on the shortlist that he will leak to the press, they would both probably turn him down flat. My suggestion is that he will choose someone like Mark Sanford.

Fred Thompson. Thompson is probably the only other candidate who could both offer Lieberman a place on the ticket and be able to do so without a revolt. More realistically, I could see him choosing someone who was both younger and female, like Sarah Palin (or even Rice), though the latter would link him too closely to Bush. I could even see him reaching out to John McCain.

Therefore I believe that there is a lot of value in: Field (22.8-39.7), Rice (5.1-5.3) and McCain (1.2-4.7)

How will the crisis in Pakistan effect the Republican and Democrat contests?

Will voters move to the more experienced candidates?

Although the crisis in Pakistan seems to eventually resolving itself, with Musharraf agreeing to hold elections, there is still are large amount of disorder with Bhutto now under house arrest and a state of civil emergency still in place. However, although this may seem rather cold blooded, the impact that these events will have of the Presidential election should be examined. Supporters of Barack Obama will presumably claim that his willingness to send US troops on anti-Al Quaeda operations within Pakistan, without Musharraf’s consent, has now been vindicated. However, I believe that this incident will undoubtedly move Democrats towards to the more experienced Hillary Clinton. The Republican side is a little more difficult because there are clearly two candidates who have strong national security credentials; John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. The fact that they are both on the centrist wing of the Republican party further complicates matters. My view is that, because of the recent endorsement of Robertson, conservative switchers will move to Giuliani and McCain in equal numbers, although I believe that Romney will be the biggest loser.

What do you think? Give your opinion in the comments section.

An updated analysis of the Republican contest

With the exception of the bottom tier, there is little change

The race is still as murky as ever. Giuliani has a clear lead nationally, but there is considerable value in Fred Thompson and still some value left in John McCain.

Rudy Giuliani – I have to admit that Giuliani has performed extremely well. Few people would have thought that he would still be leading in national polls and polling a strong second in New Hampshire and South Carolina. As I said in August, Giuliani has been clever enough to realise that he merely needs to earn acceptance from the right of the party. His prudence in keeping a low profile on his most controversial positions also means that, unlike McCain, he can still advocate moderate policies on immigration and taxation. Giuliani has also benefited from the fact that enthusiasm for Thompson has been limited and that no other credible right-wing candidate has emerged who can pass all the various litmus tests on abortion, gay marriage and other issues. However, the situation might look radically different if the right coalesce behind a candidate or if someone launches an all-out negative assault on him (which Mitt Romney seems to be starting to do). Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 40%. Price on Intrade.com 40-40.5. FAIRLY PRICED

Fred Thompson – The irrational exuberance of him being the ‘next Reagan’ have been replaced with irrational pessimism. Thompson may have few compelling policies, he may fail some of the litmus tests of the base and he may be a bit stiff but he still remains the most credible conservative in the contest. It should also be noted that in 1980 people were initially making similar complaints about Ronald Reagan. Thompson has been the clear overall winner in the various straw polls that have been held and he is starting to catch up with Giuliani in the national Rasmussen 3 day tracking poll, after his ratings fell in the wake of the Michigan debate. He needs to get the base onside, even if that means pandering on issues such as gay marriage. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 35%. Price on Intrade.com 15.8-16.1 UNDERPRICED

John McCain – If Giuliani has provided a master-class in how to gain acceptance from the Republican base without compromising one’s key beliefs McCain has demonstrated the opposite. Unlike Mitt Romney, most people realise that McCain does have sincere beliefs and they are not as unpopular with the Republican rank and file as most commentators believe. However, by pandering to the right and backing down over immigration he gives the impression that he is unable to stand up for them when it counts. Indeed, his one moment of consistency, namely his decision to stand and fight for a continued US presence in Iraq, is what has kept him in this race. He needs to go back to the themes of his 2000 campaign and start appealing to the centre, although he seems to have gotten himself into a pointless fight with Romney instead. McCain supporters need to pray that Giuliani starts to fall off the radar in the next few weeks so that McCain can have the centre all to himself. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 10%. Price on Intrade.com 6.7-6.8 UNDERPRICED

Mitt Romney – Romney may be still ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire and third nationally but I still think he is too toxic for either the average Republican voter or America at large. Despite his endorsement from Ann Coulter his chances of being the right’s standard bearer are marginal at best. His best hope is that Giuliani implodes and that he inherits his centrist mantle. His chances of winning the nomination are about 5%. Price on Intrade.com 25-25.6. OVERPRICED

5. Mike Huckabee – Like Thompson, Huckabee would be the logical standard bearer for the right of the party if he didn’t fail several of the litmus tests of that faction. Unfortunatly, for him being an religious conservative, pro-immigration and the supporter of the most regressive tax plan ever divised just don’t make for a coherent candidacy. His under-the-radar campaign might have got him close to McCain, in terms of Rammussen’s tracking polls but elsewhere he barely breaks into double figures, even in Iowa . His chances of winning the nomination are 5%. Price on Intrade.com 2.9-3.2. UNDERPRICED

6. Anyone else – Evidence from straw polls and opinion polling confirm that Brownback, Hunter and Tancredo might as well give up. Although a credible argument could be made that Ron Paul is the strongest of the third tier candidates (in terms of support) such an argument is like saying the Liberal Democrats are more likely than the Green Party to win the next British election. I still believe that betting against him is free money. Although the entry of a candidate like Collin Powell or Chuck Hagel might have had some impact a month ago it is now too late. JUST AVOID.