Can Huckabee hold off Romney, McCain and even Giuliani?

December 27, 2007

Iowa gets even more interesting.


Putting the latest ARG poll into my collection and filtering it through Samplemiser produces the following results: Huckabee 23.69 Romney 20.78 McCain 17.03 Giuliani 13.86 Paul 9.62 Thompson 3.06. This poll must obviously be taken with a large pinch of salt because many of Huckabee (and Romney’s) supporters might have been underrepresented due the fact that the poll was taken only two days before Christmas. However, if it is true it seems that could be four possible winners in Iowa and that it is quite possible that John McCain may know whether he can start considering his vice-presidential choice or think about life after politics until all the precincts report. My view is that Huckabee is in serious trouble as it is clear that his lead is melting like a snowman in Florida while McCain needs to watch his back and ensure that he doesn’t finish behind Giuliani. The only consolation for the ‘other man from Hope’ is that this poll was conducted after Tancredo’s endorsement.

On the other hand, although I don’t like to write politicians off, I think that Fred Thompson needs to face reality and get out while his endorsement can translate into a future cabinet post. My guess is that we will see him endorsing John McCain in the next few days.



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