Archive for January, 2008


Predicting Super Tuesday: GOP

January 31, 2008

The following are my predictions for the Republican primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. These are probabilistic predictions, not projections of the vote shares.

Alabama – Huckabee 55% McCain 35% Romney 10%
Arizona – McCain 95% Romney 5%
California – McCain 70% Romney 30%
Colorado – Romney 95% McCain 5%
Connecticut – McCain 90% Romney 10%
Georgia – Huckabee 70% McCain 15% Romney 15%
Illinois – McCain 70% Romney 30%
Massachusetts– Romney 95% McCain 5%
Missouri– Huckabee 45% McCain 30% Romney 25%
New Jersey – McCain 85% Romney 15%
New York – McCain 95% Romney 5%
Oklahoma – McCain 60% Huckabee 30% Romney 10%
Tennessee – Huckabee 60% Romney 30% McCain 20%

So the states to watch are:

Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Illinois, California, Georgia


Round-up of the British Betting Markets

January 31, 2008

TPT turns its attention back to the United Kingdom


 Given that an ovewhelming proportion this web-log’s coverage has been on the American Presidential elections, I thought that it was only fair that I spent some time looking at the British betting markets. The following are my notes on the UK markets:

London Mayoralty – I think Mayor Ken Livingstone will scrape through against Boris Johnson. However, his price of 1.64 on Betfair (or 60.9 in Intrade terms) doesn’t leave much room for value. If you pushed me I’d say he has a 65% chance of winning (1.53) but I really wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Next Election – Going to stick with my prediction that there is a value in an election this year. The polls seem to have bottomed out for Labour and there is plenty of room for them to catch-up. At 26 for an election before the end of June and 26 for an election from July to the end of the year, I would say that this is one the best value bets on offer.

Seats Spread betting – There’s a lot of value in betting against the Liberal Democrats (47-51) on Spreadfair.


Some thoughts on Florida

January 30, 2008

1. McCain is now 90% likely to win the nomination. With Giuliani out and Huckabee fatally wounded he should have enough momentum to overcome Romney.

2. Romney’s election night speech sounded very much like a concession speech, thanking his staff from taking ‘me from nowhere to the first tier’. Expect the 11th commandment to come into force in tonight’s debate. I can even see Romney pulling out and/or pulling his campaign ads so as to prevent Huckabee from playing a Kingmaker role. After all, Romeny’s warchest is not limitless.

3. Much of the Republican blogosphere is coming around to a McCain nomination.

4. Despite his denials, Lieberman must remain the odds on favourite to be on the bottom of the GOP ticket. The fact that he will be attending the GOP convention says it all.

5. Hillary’s victory, on such a massive turnout, must strengthen her hand.


Is the market overreacting?

January 29, 2008

Is McCain nearly 80% likely to win tonight?


Unfortunately no. More like 60-65%. Given that the probability of McCain winning the nomination is still in the early 60s, I’d advise you to sell contracts on McCain winning Florida and buy contracts on McCain winning the nomination.


Final DEMOCRAT projection: Clinton leads by over 25%

January 29, 2008

If the polls are correct, Senator Clinton will be smiling


My final projections for the Democrat side are: Hillary Clinton 52.62 Barack Obama 26.96 and John Edwards 12.43. Only 7.99% of voters are undecided. Even though no delegates are at stake such a Hillary Clinton landslide cannot be ignored. At the very least, it will wipe away some of the stain of South Carolina.


Final Projection: McCain leads by 0.30%

January 29, 2008

The Florida contest is simply too close to call


Taking all the published polls together, my final projections are: John McCain 32.13, Mitt Romney 31.83, Rudolph Giuliani 13.24, Mike Huckabee 12.58 and Ron Paul 3.43. The election is truly too close to call and don’t let the betting markets, or anyone else tell you otherwise. Remember that the exit polls were confortably predicting a Huckabee victory in South Carolina (and lets not pass over the New Hampshire debacle). 6.73% of voters are still undecided.


Romney leads by 1.54%

January 28, 2008

Good news for Romney supporters and Democrat hacks


Taking all the published polls together, my current projections are: Mitt Romney 30.82, John McCain 29.28, Rudolph Giuliani 14.45, Mike Huckabee 12.52 and Ron Paul 4.02. It’s pretty obvious that tomorrow’s contest will be decided by the tactical voting decisions of Huckabee and Giuliani supporters. In any case Giuliani will not see February 5th.