Some new head-to-heads

January 28, 2008

Some preliminary predictions about likely Presidential match-ups.


Given that the Republican contest is essentially between McCain and Romney, with the Democratic contest down to Clinton and Obama it is much easier to construct head-to-heads. Note, these head-to-heads assume that neither Michael Bloomber, nor another serious third party candidate enters the contest.

Clinton/McCain – A pretty straightforward win for the Arizona senator provided he selects a strong running mate and doesn’t listen to the advice of those who have a vested interest in his failure. He’ll also need to move back to the centre and start finding the populist touch that at one point put him ahead of Al Gore in a poll of a hypothetical three way match-up with Bush. Hillary Clinton will be further handicapped by her campaign, which will mean that she will have to spend time and money bringing the African-American vote back into her column. Prediction: John McCain has a 65% probability of winning.

Obama/McCain – The conventional wisdom is that Obama will be a strong candidate. In this case the conventional wisdom is extremely suspect. Obama is an inexperienced candidate with a large number of personal skeletons in his closet. Ultimately, McCain will win and he will win big. McCain just needs to avoid complacency and prevent people like Michelle Malkin and Ann Coulter sabotaging his campaign by making racist comments. Prediction: John McCain has a 85% probability of winning.

Clinton/Romney – Like the last two contests this one won’t be particularly close. However, this time it will be Hillary on the right end of a landslide. Economic worries, combined with Mitt Romney’s flip-flops, will lead to anemic Republican support and a recapturing of the South. Many people in the Republican party, especially those in the ‘Hillary Clinton industry’ might be able to accept a Clinton victory, but not at the cost of several Senate seats. Prediction: McCain has a 85% probability of winning.

Obama/Romney – This will be the election with the two weakest candidates. On the one hand you have someone who is clearly not up to the job of being President. On the other hand you have someone who is the epitome of pandering and the politics that has dominated the White House for the last eight years, without the benefit of a consistent support for the one thing that George Bush has got right. I’m going to predict a small Obama victory, although Romney could pull it off. God help America and God help the world! Prediction: Obama has a 55% probability of winning.

What do you think? Post your views belows.


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