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Predicting Super Tuesday: GOP

January 31, 2008

The following are my predictions for the Republican primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. These are probabilistic predictions, not projections of the vote shares.

Alabama – Huckabee 55% McCain 35% Romney 10%
Arizona – McCain 95% Romney 5%
California – McCain 70% Romney 30%
Colorado – Romney 95% McCain 5%
Connecticut – McCain 90% Romney 10%
Georgia – Huckabee 70% McCain 15% Romney 15%
Illinois – McCain 70% Romney 30%
Massachusetts– Romney 95% McCain 5%
Missouri– Huckabee 45% McCain 30% Romney 25%
New Jersey – McCain 85% Romney 15%
New York – McCain 95% Romney 5%
Oklahoma – McCain 60% Huckabee 30% Romney 10%
Tennessee – Huckabee 60% Romney 30% McCain 20%

So the states to watch are:

Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Illinois, California, Georgia

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One comment

  1. As it appears the country has lost its mind and McCain is now leading in the polls I have a suggestion for the theme song for the McCain camp and the RNC, “This is the End” by the Doors.



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