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A roundup of the betting markets

January 27, 2008

TPT looks at the betting markets

The political betting markets in the US have reached the peak of their activity. Since Giuliani is fading into the Florida sunset, and his supporters will inevitably flock to John McCain (while Huckabee’s supporters will stick with the preacher), I will predict that even if John McCain doesn’t win the Florida primary, he will eventually emerge as the nominee (55.1-55.8). My prediction is that McCain has a 70% chance, Romney 15%, Huckabee 10% and Giuliani has a nominal 5% chance. The main question is whether McCain will accumalate enough delegates to enable him to have a relatively free choice of running mate (which would be Lieberman). It is quite possible that he will be forced to choose Huckabee (21.5-22) if he falls short.

Similarly, even though both the Clintons did Hillary’s campaign no favours with the tone of the campaign in South Carolina, I believe that betting on Hillary Clinton at (62.7-64) is still good value. I would give the chances of a Clinton victory at 70%. After all, to give a shortened version of what I have said earlier, Barack Obama is simply too inexperienced for high office. However, if Obama does win I believe that he will choose either Jim Webb (3-4.4), to reinforce his roots with the South, or Michael Bloomberg to grab headlines, cash and liberal Republicans. If Hillary wins she might be forced to pick Obama (20-22.5) or someone like Ken Salazar.

My tips are McCain and Clinton for their respective party’s nominations and Huckaee, Webb and both Fields for the the second sport on the ticket.

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2 comments

  1. […] thepoliticaltipster created an interesting post today on A roundup of the betting marketsHere’s a short outline […]


  2. Hey cool betting blog.

    We have a group of UK tipsters who just started out Free Bets UK. Free Betting & UK free Betting previews. We are doing pretty well, take a look, we are always on the look out for new tipsters.



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