Some thoughts on last night

January 27, 2008

TPT’s thoughts on South Carolina.


1. The result was obviously a great one for Obama. However, it doesn’t alter the essential dynamic of the contest, which is a Clinton victory.

2. However, it does mean that Hillary Clinton cannot be assured of the African-American vote. This will mean that she might be forced to put Barack Obama on the ticket after all.

3. Edwards is pretty much dead. Given that he didn’t in the end come close to challenging Hillary for second place and he only manage to carry the county of his birth, his value as anything more than a spolier is limited.

4. Edwards faces a paradox. Because his voters will mostly go to Hillary, he helps Obama (and therefore his vice-presidential chances) by staying in the contest. However, if he stays in the contest it will become obvious that he has a ceiling of 10-15% support, which will make him useless as a running mate.

5. Indeed, if Obama manages to pull it off, he will probably select someone like James Webb, who can help him carry the South, or Michael Bloomberg. Edwards would be a stupid choice for the reasons above.

6. The story on the Republican side is Crist’s endorsement of John McCain in Florida. I don’t like to tempt fate but this must be the end for Giuliani.


One comment

  1. As someone who has worked at the RNC, nothing gets me and my pals more excited than the prospect of a McCain/ Billary general election.

    The question is, will Obama’s rapid supporters show up to the polls to vote for her in this increasingly divisive campaign? My bet is most will, but some won’t.

    McCain is distrusted by the far right, but they will still come out in droves to prevent another Clinton White House. Obama isn’t nearly as disliked and Ive even heard several republicans saying they like him (although that might be just because he is attacking Bill at the moment!)

    Plus, McCain can trounce her among independants!

    Come on Bill-Hilary, Get Nasty!!

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