British Polling Projections: Conservative majority of 4

TPM looks at the state of the British polls

Using Samplemiser to filter all British polls since late August produces the following (seat projections in brackets):

Conservatives 40.98 (327)
Labour 31.99 (264)
Liberal Democrats 16.02 (28)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 18.

This is dispiriting news for all parties. It’s bad for Labour because of the 8.99 deficit in the popular vote. It’s bad for the Conservatives because they have barely got a majority. Despite the fact that that no party will get a decisive majority, suggesting that they might have to be invited into a coalition government, the Liberal Democrats will lose a large number of seats. If these results were repeated the Conservatives would probably run a minority government for six months or so and then call another election.

Round-up of the British Betting Markets

TPT turns its attention back to the United Kingdom

 

 Given that an ovewhelming proportion this web-log’s coverage has been on the American Presidential elections, I thought that it was only fair that I spent some time looking at the British betting markets. The following are my notes on the UK markets:

London Mayoralty – I think Mayor Ken Livingstone will scrape through against Boris Johnson. However, his price of 1.64 on Betfair (or 60.9 in Intrade terms) doesn’t leave much room for value. If you pushed me I’d say he has a 65% chance of winning (1.53) but I really wouldn’t bet the house on it.

Next Election – Going to stick with my prediction that there is a value in an election this year. The polls seem to have bottomed out for Labour and there is plenty of room for them to catch-up. At 26 for an election before the end of June and 26 for an election from July to the end of the year, I would say that this is one the best value bets on offer.

Seats Spread betting – There’s a lot of value in betting against the Liberal Democrats (47-51) on Spreadfair.