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British Polling Projections: Conservative majority of 4

February 19, 2008

TPM looks at the state of the British polls

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Using Samplemiser to filter all British polls since late August produces the following (seat projections in brackets):

Conservatives 40.98 (327)
Labour 31.99 (264)
Liberal Democrats 16.02 (28)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 18.

This is dispiriting news for all parties. It’s bad for Labour because of the 8.99 deficit in the popular vote. It’s bad for the Conservatives because they have barely got a majority. Despite the fact that that no party will get a decisive majority, suggesting that they might have to be invited into a coalition government, the Liberal Democrats will lose a large number of seats. If these results were repeated the Conservatives would probably run a minority government for six months or so and then call another election.

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