What Labour needs to do

TPT gives some advice to the Labour Party

The local elections and the recent political climate have been extremely disappointing for Labour. Polling worse than the Liberal Democrats in the local elections and losing over three hundred seats while trailing in the polls simply cannot be spun. It also raises the question of why this happened and where Labour go from here. The most obvious reason why Labour, and Livingstone, did so badly was simply that they have been in power for eleven years. After at most one term of incumbency advantage, all governments gradually become less popular over time as voters seek some sort of change, even if the change on offer is not something they would normally select. It is no coincidence that both British and American politics seems to operate in partisan cycles of 8 to 12 years. However, this factor does not suggest any way forward for the government and it is an incomplete and unsatisfactory explanation.

The real roots of Labour’s current poor performance lie in the 2005 election. That election was characterised by a fear in the last few weeks that poor turnout among traditional supporters would deliver a shock victory to the Conservatives. This led Tony Blair to make one of the major strategic mistakes of his premiership which was to transfer command of the campaign and organisation from Alan Milburn to Gordon Brown. Not only would this sow the seeds of Blair’s exit at the hands of Brown’s cronies, but it would also pave the way for Brown to be coronated without the leadership challenge from the modernisers that would either have exposed his flaws or at least kept him on his feet. The emphasis on core voters, or what the party’s strategists perceived to be their base, also led the government to take their eyes off the vital centre and prevented the government from fully defending their foreign policy.

While the government has been brave in its continued attempts to reform the public services it seems that it is too ready to back down in the face of criticism from vested interests, whether in the police, armed forces or the health service. This has meant that Britain failed to adopt the American counterinsurgency strategy of getting in the terrorists’ face in Iraq and it has created a situation where the Association of Chief Police Officers can effectively veto the government’s reclassification of cannabis, by giving notice that they will not enforce the law. While the opposition misses no opportunity to pander to such groups, and a Conservative government led by David Cameron would encourage such interests, Labour must have confidence enough to overrule the proclaimed experts. The government also needs to accept that, while it has shown courageous leadership of issues such as gay marriage, it needs to recognise that, at the same time as promoting tolerance, there is nothing wrong with promoting the two parent family as an ideal.

The Labour Party also needs to have a long think about Gordon Brown. Although his emphasis on short term gestures served the party well when a snap election seemed possible, he now seems incapable of the transition to an extended period of governing. Although he has correctly decided to keep troops in Iraq, seems to be starting to make some noises about law and order and has broken with Bob Shrum, Brown generally seems to be unsure about where he wants to take the country. Whether he is presented with a bottle of whisky and a revolver or is fully backed, the party cannot afford the low level sniping that characterised the Major government from ‘Black Wednesday’ onwards. A challenge from Charles Clarke or, at the very least, notice that Brown has until the conference to pull his socks up would be the best solution. However, if his critics are too afraid to challenge him they must then have the courage to fully support him. It would help matter if Brown acknowledged that some policies, such as ID cards and the tax changes, may be worth reconsidering.

Although there are considerable grounds for improvement it is important to recognise both that the government has achieved a lot and the alternatives would be disastrous for Britain. The government has managed to improve Britain’s standing with America and Europe, it has helped deliver democracy around the world while it reforming both our constitution and public services. It has also managed to make Britain a fairer country without letting public expenditure spiral out of control or harming economic competitiveness. It was with pride that I voted for Labour in 2001, 2005 and last week. Although I will admit that some Liberal Democrats have a few interesting ideas on economic and financial policy, almost of their policies on defence, social policy and other issues are unworkable. Similarly, the Conservatives seem to flip from rabid populism to libertarian elitism and back. There are also serious question marks about David Cameron’s ability to handle either foreign or economic policy, though questions did not stop Boris Johnson being elected Mayor of London. It is precisely because the government has achieved so much, that it is worth taking radical steps to protect its achievements.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 36

Bad news for Labour.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.64 (343)
Labour 31.91 (245)
Liberal Democrats 17.95 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.2 Lab 32.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 31.2 LDm 18.2. The Conservative are now projected to have a small majority. However, the central point remains that the scale of the gap in popular vote terms, and the potential for tactical unwind, suggests that Gordon Brown’s position should not be completely secure.

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British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Back into hung parliament territory

 

Adding the latest You Gov poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 38.63 (309)
Labour 30.77 (269)
Liberal Democrats 17.01 (41)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.8 Lab 32 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 29.4 LDm 18.2. Although we are back to hung parliament territory, the fact remains that Samplemiser has not projected a Labour majority since November 4th. Brosi Johnson’s lead in London shows that Labour need to do something to combat the third term inertia, and that Gordon Brown might not be the leader who can find the solution. At the very least they need to go on the attack against Cameron.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 100

Should Labour start thinking about a challenge to Brown?

Adding the latest You Gov poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.98 (375)
Labour 29 (215)
Liberal Democrats 17.05 (31)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.4 Lab 31.8 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41 Lab 30 LDm 18.6. No matter how you look at it, things are dire for Labour. If knives aren’t already being sharpened they should be now.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 60

Things are still bad for Labour but there is a slight improvement

 

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.11 (355)
Labour 28.76 (222)
Liberal Democrats 20.38 (43)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.8 Lab 32.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 40.4 Lab 30.8 LDm 18.4. Although the situation is still dire, things are just a little bit better.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 106

Very bad news for Labour.

Adding the latest ICM and YouGov polls to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.54 (378)
Labour 27.54 (210)
Liberal Democrats 16.33 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.4 Lab 33 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.8 Lab 32.4 LDm 17.4. Although the two minor measures are slightly less dire for Labour, the situation is grim. The budget seems to have been a catalyst for a mass move to the Conservatives. Changes need to be made and we shouldn’t assume that they will stop at Alistair Darling.

Britsh Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Good news for the Liberal Democrats.

 

Adding the latest Populus poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.08 (306)
Labour 33.99 268
Liberal Democrats 18.96 (45)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.8 Lab 33.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.4 Lab 33.6 LDm 16.8. Ironically, although Labour have closed the gap in terms of the headline popular vote (though they have worsened their position in the two other measures) their projected seat numbers have declined, since they no longer are projected to recapture many of the seats that they lost to the Liberal Democrats.

How Gordon Brown can win the next election

Should Labour attack Cameron’s ‘Mitt-flops’?

At the moment the situation looks relatively bleak for Gordon Brown. According to the latest poll Labour are seven point behind the Conservatives, while my projections have the Conservative lead slightly larger. On a Uniform National Swing this would leave the Conservatives with a majority of about 28. However, the fact that the opinion polls traditionally overestimate Labour and the Conservatives seem to be better at targeting their resources into marginal constituencies mean the possibility of a Tory majority closer to 50 to 60, or even 70 to 80 should not be ruled out. At the same time Ken Livingstone is trailing in the polls against Boris Johnson in the race to be London’s mayor, showing that the Conservative machine is credibly able to challenge an incumbent who at least perceived to be somewhat popular.

Even the traditionally critical Conservative grassroots seem to be pleased with Cameron’s performance. Indeed, some commentators are now starting to talk of a ‘Cameron effect’, where even negative coverage of the Conservative leader boosts the Conservatives in the opinion polls, with the political prognosticator Mike Smithson stating that, ‘the Tories poll well the more Cameron is making the headlines – even if the coverage is negative’. This would seem to make any attempt to take David Cameron on head on, suicidal for Labour. However, Karl Rove, the famous (some would say infamous) advisor to George W Bush, proved, by winning two elections, that attacking what is perceived to be your opponents biggest asset sometimes is a very effective strategy. Indeed, Cameron has provided Labour with plenty of ammunition over the few years of his political career.

For instance, Cameron seems to be a politician of few fixed principles. While ideological flexibility and a willingness to adapt one’s beliefs as events unfold is a necessary political skill, the extent to which Cameron has changed his mind on matters of economic, social and foreign policy is breathtaking, as is the speed of these transformations. Less than three years ago Cameron was elected on a platform of continuity with that of his predecessor Michael Howard. Indeed, Cameron had helped run the, ‘are you thinking what we’re thinking’ campaign that tried to win on the back of an attempt to stirs up fear about refugees and asylum seekers and promised to reduce public spending by sacking anyone in the public sector who got pregnant. However, immediately after he was elected, he went to the other extreme, claiming, in a speech on youth crime, that, ‘the hoodie is a response to a problem, not a problem in itself…inside those boundaries we have to show a lot more love’. However, finding that such an approach did not work well outside the mansions of Notting Hill, Cameron has now gone back to preying on anti-immigrant hysteria.

It is not just that Cameron has flipped from rabid populism to libertarian elitism and back, there are also serious question marks about his ability to handle either foreign and economic policy viewing them both through the prism of cheap political point scoring. Although Cameron half-heartedly supported the war he has been quick to disassociate himself from it, claiming that ‘Issues that once divided Conservatives from Liberal Democrats are now issues where we both agree. Our attitude to devolution and localisation of power. Iraq’. Similarly, at a time when we need to work with America, Cameron has been willing to play party politics with the Special Relationship, claiming the government has been, ‘slavish in our friendship with America…..I fear that if we continue as at present we may combine the maximum of exposure with the minimum of real influence over decisions’. Although there were many reasons to criticise the decision to prop up Northern Rock, the Tories main criticism was the decision do so in a transparent manner, suggesting that under the Conservatives decisions regarding public money will be carried out in smoke-filled rooms.

So the government line of attack seems to be straightforward. They must keep Cameron’s numerous flip-flops and panders in the public eye while reminding people that Cameron, and the rest of the Conservative front-benchers, lack either the judgement or the moral compass to enable to the necessary tough decisions needed to promote Britain’s values and security. Of course this strategy will not work if the government, and Gordon Brown, doesn’t manage to articulate its own core values to the public at large. Tony Blair managed to win three elections by convincing the public, through both words and actions, that he was a man of principles and values. Although Gordon Brown has been in power for less than a year it is clear that he does best when he can articulate a vision for Britain’s future and connect it with his core beliefs and moral background. Since the government has rightly decided to retain a presence in Iraq and Afghanistan to continue to fight Al-Quaeda, it needs to make the moral and strategic necessity clearer to the wider public and contrast it with the Conservatives opportunistic (and short-sighted) take on foreign affairs.

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.06 (311)
Labour 32.84 (280)
Liberal Democrats 16.04 (29)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39 Lab 32.6 LDm 18.2.

Labour has slightly improved its position in the headline figures and gone down in the other measures. Again, Labour really need to find some way of permanantly changing things, probably by attacking David Cameron.

British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority of 28

Adding the latest poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 40.88 (339)
Labour 30.36 (246)
Liberal Democrats 16.95 (34)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.4 Lab 33.8 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32 LDm 18.4.

The Conservatives seem to have bounced back, although whether this is down to the Cameron effect (Cameron’s exposure in the news being a positive for them even when the news is negative) or a realization that nationalisation may not have been the optimal solution for Northern Rock remains to be seen (I believe it is a bit of both).

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Adding the latest YouGov poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 39.86 (293)
Labour 33.98 (290)
Liberal Democrats 18.10 (37)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 37.8 Lab 33.8 LDm 18.2 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32.6 LDm 18.6.

The polling is unambiguous that the Northern Rock nationalisations has not (for the moment) at least been the knockout blow that the Conservatives were hoping for. It is now conceivable that we may actually see Labour consistantly ahead in the polls by the late spring.

British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Conservatives lead in votes but Labour now lead in seats.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.7 (273)
Labour 33.66 (297)
Liberal Democrats 20.34 (50)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.4 LDm 18.2.

This seems to suggest that Labour is closing the gap with the Conservatives. Paradoxically, the Northern Rock nationalization may have drawn a line under the whole sorry saga, even if it is the worse possible solution.

British Polling Projections: Conservative majority of 4

TPM looks at the state of the British polls

Using Samplemiser to filter all British polls since late August produces the following (seat projections in brackets):

Conservatives 40.98 (327)
Labour 31.99 (264)
Liberal Democrats 16.02 (28)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 18.

This is dispiriting news for all parties. It’s bad for Labour because of the 8.99 deficit in the popular vote. It’s bad for the Conservatives because they have barely got a majority. Despite the fact that that no party will get a decisive majority, suggesting that they might have to be invited into a coalition government, the Liberal Democrats will lose a large number of seats. If these results were repeated the Conservatives would probably run a minority government for six months or so and then call another election.

Filtered Polling Data: Conservative majority 72

Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 43.07 Labour 31.04 Liberal Democrats 15.93. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 68 Given that a poll in tomorrow’s Guardian will announce a much closer result (although the detailed data needed for a projection is not yet available) this result should be regarded as provisional.

Filtered Polling Data: Conservative Majority 100

Inputting the latest You Gov Poll into my spreadsheet and filtering the data produces the following projection: Conservatives 44.72 Labour 32.02 Liberal Democrats 13.09. Putting this into Baxter produces the following seats projection: Conservatives 375 Labour 230 Liberal Democrats 15. An updated spreadsheet is here (the UNS formula predicts a slightly lower Conservative majority of 92).