Britsh Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

March 11, 2008

Good news for the Liberal Democrats.


Adding the latest Populus poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.08 (306)
Labour 33.99 268
Liberal Democrats 18.96 (45)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38.8 Lab 33.6 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.4 Lab 33.6 LDm 16.8. Ironically, although Labour have closed the gap in terms of the headline popular vote (though they have worsened their position in the two other measures) their projected seat numbers have declined, since they no longer are projected to recapture many of the seats that they lost to the Liberal Democrats.


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