British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

April 1, 2008

Back into hung parliament territory


Adding the latest You Gov poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 38.63 (309)
Labour 30.77 (269)
Liberal Democrats 17.01 (41)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.8 Lab 32 LDm 18 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 29.4 LDm 18.2. Although we are back to hung parliament territory, the fact remains that Samplemiser has not projected a Labour majority since November 4th. Brosi Johnson’s lead in London shows that Labour need to do something to combat the third term inertia, and that Gordon Brown might not be the leader who can find the solution. At the very least they need to go on the attack against Cameron.


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