British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

February 20, 2008

Conservatives lead in votes but Labour now lead in seats.


Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.7 (273)
Labour 33.66 (297)
Liberal Democrats 20.34 (50)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.4 LDm 18.2.

This seems to suggest that Labour is closing the gap with the Conservatives. Paradoxically, the Northern Rock nationalization may have drawn a line under the whole sorry saga, even if it is the worse possible solution.


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