British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

Conservatives lead in votes but Labour now lead in seats.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 37.7 (273)
Labour 33.66 (297)
Liberal Democrats 20.34 (50)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 38 Lab 33.6 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38 Lab 33.4 LDm 18.2.

This seems to suggest that Labour is closing the gap with the Conservatives. Paradoxically, the Northern Rock nationalization may have drawn a line under the whole sorry saga, even if it is the worse possible solution.

So how did TPT do?

A mixed night for this website.

There were both positives and negatives about this site’s performance. The unadjusted projeections got the order of the Democratic entrance poll and the Republican caucus correct. At the same time my probabalistic predictions and the augmented formula were wide off the mark – though I contend that given the entrance poll that I acted reasonably in believing that the Obama price was too high. In terms of betting I’ve lost some money on my bet on Romney, my Obama short and my punts on McCain & Giuliani in the Hawkeye state. If Thompson withdraws I will have lost that money as well. However, the result can only be positive for McCain and Huckabee (whom I have a stake in for the nomination) and bad for Romney and Giuliani (who I don’t). It also hellps me with my remaining REP.NH.MCCAIN contracts. Also, Biden and Dodd are definitely off the list of potential nominees (if they were ever on) for VP while Bill Richardson seems to be permanantly off Clinton’s Christmas card list – which should help Webb, Warner or another candidate for VP.