Do you want to win $100?

April 5, 2008

The TPT Prediction Contest

To encourage some interest in the contest, if more interest is needed, I am going offer $100 to the person who correctly predicts:

Clinton’s margin over Obama in Pennsylvania.

To avoid any ambiguities this means Clinton’s votes in the Democratic Primary minus Obama’s votes in the Democratic Primary divided by the overall number of votes in said primary. Of course if you believe that Obama will beat Clinton then you should post a negative number. The margin should be to the nearest 0.1%. The winner will be decided by myself and must have a PayPal account. If two posters are tied then the winner will be the poster who posts first (note: I am automatically moderating each post so your post might take a bit of time to appear). Only one entry will be allowed per person and only entries posted in this thread will be counted.

I’m going to kick off the contest with my prediction: 11.2% (and yes, if I win I will claim the prize!)

All entrants must provide an email address.

UPDATE: The contest is now closed. Good luck to all those who took part!



  1. 7.5 points clinton

  2. 12.4%

  3. Comments without email addresses will be voided

  4. 10,3%

  5. -1.2%

  6. 4.8%

  7. 5.3% for Clinton

  8. Clinton 14.3%

  9. […] If you want to take part in a chance to win $100 please click here. […]

  10. Clinton 3.5%

  11. […] If you want to take part in a chance to win $100 please click here. […]

  12. Well, I’ll take a stab. 9.8%

    This would be better if it were private, to avoid strategic guessing (e.g., if someone guesses 5.6% and another 5.7%, boxing them in by guessing 5.8%).

    Just a tip.

  13. 13.2398%

  14. 8.5%

  15. 9.3% for Hillary.

  16. 12.8%

  17. 9.1%

  18. Clinton by 6.03%

  19. 7.9%

  20. Clinton by 9.4%

  21. 7.1%

  22. Clinton by 6%

  23. Clinton by 8.2%

  24. 9.5%

  25. Clinton by 10.3

  26. I want to take an unoccupied spot on this board.

    Clinton 56.8
    Obama 42.3
    Other 0.9

    For those of you who can’t do math – Clinton by 14.5%.

  27. Clinton 9.0%

  28. Clinton 11,1

  29. Clinton 9.4

  30. Clinton 8.8%

  31. Clinton by 8.23%

  32. 10,0% for Clinton

  33. clinton by 8,7%

  34. Clinton by 14.29%

  35. I have absolutely no confidence in this prediction, but who knows, I’ll try anyway.

    Clinton’s margin of victory will be -1%, meaning Obama by 1 🙂

  36. 8%

  37. 8% for Clinton*…Forgot to include that 😛

  38. The contest is now closed. Good luck to all those who took part!

  39. 6.7% for Clinton… please reopen the contest! Thanks.

  40. The winner is JL. Thanks to everyone who took part.

  41. Thanks for the contest! If you still got money, I would be happy to participate in similar contests for Indiana and North Carolina 🙂

  42. Unfortuntaly, no. It was devised as an experiment to attract hits which didn’t work well enough to justify the cost.

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