British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 106

March 16, 2008

Very bad news for Labour.


Adding the latest ICM and YouGov polls to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.54 (378)
Labour 27.54 (210)
Liberal Democrats 16.33 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 39.4 Lab 33 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 39.8 Lab 32.4 LDm 17.4. Although the two minor measures are slightly less dire for Labour, the situation is grim. The budget seems to have been a catalyst for a mass move to the Conservatives. Changes need to be made and we shouldn’t assume that they will stop at Alistair Darling.



  1. Oy Vey Ken,it looks like you will not be elected as Mayor of London.

    Please allow me to hand you your coat,now off you go!!

  2. This would represent the worst result for Labour (in terms of seats lost) ever. The previous record was 120 seats lost in 1983. If the result is anything like this – and it does seem very likely – the Party will fall apart. It exists to promote an egalitarian ethic through State action: under the 21st-century economic system national governments can no more deliver egalitarianism than they can make the sun shine to-morrow.

    The Liberal Democrats won’t lose thirty seats. They are savvy tactical campaigners (less so in Parliament) – probably will lose between ten and twenty.

  3. Labour did worse in 1983 (209 seats). I would probably expect, if these results were repeated (which they won’t), for there to be a battle between the left and right for the soul of the party. However, I don’t think that the Labour party would implode – my guess is that John Reid, Hazel Blears or Charles Clarke would become leader.

  4. it will be difficult for John Reid to become Prime Minister as he is standing down at the next election. He is now Chairman of Celtic FC and that is why we see very little of him on TV these days.

  5. Good point, but if there is a possibility that Labour might suffer a bad defeat there might be pressure on him to reconsider his decision.

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