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British Polling Projections: Hung Parliament

February 22, 2008

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Adding the latest YouGov poll to my collection and filtering them produces the following projections:

Conservatives 39.86 (293)
Labour 33.98 (290)
Liberal Democrats 18.10 (37)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 37.8 Lab 33.8 LDm 18.2 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 38.6 Lab 32.6 LDm 18.6.

The polling is unambiguous that the Northern Rock nationalisations has not (for the moment) at least been the knockout blow that the Conservatives were hoping for. It is now conceivable that we may actually see Labour consistantly ahead in the polls by the late spring.

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