British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority 36

April 7, 2008

Bad news for Labour.

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 42.64 (343)
Labour 31.91 (245)
Liberal Democrats 17.95 (32)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.2 Lab 32.2 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 31.2 LDm 18.2. The Conservative are now projected to have a small majority. However, the central point remains that the scale of the gap in popular vote terms, and the potential for tactical unwind, suggests that Gordon Brown’s position should not be completely secure.

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