Posts Tagged ‘rudy giuliani’

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Betting Journal: Lots of actvity

March 15, 2008

I bought ten contracts on Ron Paul and Rudolph Giuliani winning the GOP nomination, closing out my short. I also sold short seventeen contracts on Barack Obama becoming the next President.

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Updated Projections: Huckabee leads by 5%

January 3, 2008

Huckabee leads Romney, McCain fallls into fourth

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Inputting the newest ARG and Zogby polls, deleting the Zogby poll that ended on January 2nd and replacing it with the one that ended on the 29th the final projections are produced: Huckabee 30.15 Romney 24.88 Thompson 11.76 McCain 10.50 Paul 8.37 Giuliani 6.76 (as of 4:15pm GMT). McCain seems to have to have lost most of the boost that he has gained from the DMR endorsement but he is still (for now) ahead of Giuliani and Paul. The updated projections are here.

Note: I initially forgot to remove the Jan 2 poll, as a consequence Huckabee’s lead is 5.27% not 5%.

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Thompson surges while McCain and Giuliani both stumble

December 28, 2007

Polls indicate that Thompson is starting to catch up with the leaders – but are they right?

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Adding the Bloomberg and Strategic Vision polls to my collection and filtering them just adds to the following projections: Mike Huckabee 29.45 Mitt Romney 26.61 Fred Thompson 13.78 John McCain 13.36 Rudy Giuliani 4.4 Ron Paul 3.76. The only thing that is consistant with my previous projections is that McCain is ahead of Giuliani and Huckabee is only slightly ahead of Romney. Because all the other poll results are so divergent I’m half inclined to ignore these two polls and wait for some surveys that were not conducted over Boxing day. In any case this should help Thompson in his quest to raise enough funds to keep his ads on the air.

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Romney moves back into the lead … by 0.3%.

November 30, 2007

Mitt Romney is still in dire trouble.

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Inputting the latest Iowa ARG survey sees a virtual dead heat between the two Romney and Huckabee, with Romney now in the lead. The full projections are: Romney 27.38 Huckabee 27.08 Thompson 13.54 Giuliani 9.36 McCain 8.47 Paul 3.09. Romney and Thompson are still in trouble and McCain needs to get cracking. However, there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel and he should seriously consider putting in more than a nominal effort in the Hawkeye state. Pushing Giuliani into fifth place is too good an opportunity to pass up and it would a shame if Rudy beat him by a few hundred votes, which would be the difference between a nominal organisation and no ground organisation at all.

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Romney under fire as the gap closes further

November 28, 2007

The gap in Iowa between Huckabee and Romeny shrinks further.

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Putting the latest Strategic Vision poll into Samplemiser produces the following projections: Romney 26.13 Huckabee 23.96 Giuliani 13.95 Thompson 10.17 John McCain 6.98 Ron Paul 5.02. Both Romney, McCain and Thompson really need to improve their positions if they don’t want the following primaries to turn into a Giuliani versus Huckabee contest. I have to say that I am happy that I am betting against Romney! My advice to McCain is that he needs to go after Giuliani and focus on his lobbying work, while Thompson needs to make sure that he is still visible.

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Ranking the Republican candidates

November 10, 2007

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Giuliani starts to pull away from the pack. There is still value in Thompson and McCain (and a punt on Huckabee might be a good idea).

The race is still as murky as ever. Giuliani has a clear lead nationally, but there is considerable value in Fred Thompson and still some value left in John McCain. It should also be noted that I have decided to update these rankings fortnightly from now on.

Rudolph Giuliani – Giuliani still leads in the national polls and has a strong position in both Iowa and New Hampshire. It’s impossible to describe the Robertson endorsement as anything other than a major boost and the crisis in Pakistan can only help a candidate whose perceived strong point is national security. It’s amazing to think that Giuliani could wrap up the nomination in January by getting into the top two in Iowa. The only cloud on the horizon is the Bernard Kerik scandal. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 45%. Price on Intrade.com 42-43. FAIRLY PRICED

Fred Thompson – His campaign continues to drift downward due to the perception that he less than fully committed to it. At the same time his reliance on free media, which was a necessity when he hadn’t announced, has ultimately prove unwise. Thompson needs to put in some time on the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire. The fact that he is beginning to air some adverts on television will be reassuring for his supporters and he still remains second in the national Rasmussen poll. Chances of winning the nomination are about 20%. Price on Intrade.com 5.9-6. UNDERPRICED

John McCain – McCain may be doing better in the national polls, but as Joe Lieberman found out in 2004, being in a ‘three way tie for third’ is nowhere near enough. It is also imperative that he pulls ahead of Giuliani in Iowa. As I have been saying for the last three months, McCain needs to remind the centre why it supported him eight years ago. His opposition to the adverts run on his behalf by an advocacy group demonstrates his honourable character, though that could very quickly turn to cynicism unless he makes another gesture emphasising his opposition to the ads, even if that means returning donations and/or firing staff. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are around 15%. Price on Intrade.com 6.7-6.8 UNDERPRICED

Mitt Romney – Romney is still ahead in Iowa and New Hampshire so it would be silly to completely write him off. Romney also has a large amount of money, so he doesn’t have the financial worries that other candidates will have. However, Romney’s chances of winning the nomination are about 10% because I believe that a poor result in Iowa, will really reduce his momentum. Endorsements aside, I believe that Romney’s support in Iowa will start to decline once Thompson starts airing ads in Iowa and Huckabee gets Dobson’s endorsement. Estimated chances of winning the nomination are about 10% Chances of the Price on Intrade.com 29.4-29.9. OVERPRICED

5. Mike Huckabee – Like McCain in 2000, Huckabee is the classic demonstration that an effective grassroots campaign that relies on early state momentum and time spent on the stump works. I still believe that Huckbee’s stances on taxation and foreign policy are his Achilles heels and that it is difficult to see him doing well in New Hampshire. However, he has a decent shot a winning Iowa. Indeed, I could imagine Huckabee becoming the Howard Dean of 2008, which might make him a good bet if you can find a ‘greater fool’ to lay it off to when his price surges. His chances of winning the nomination are 10%. Price on Intrade.com 5.4-6.3. UNDERPRICED

6. Anyone else – I have put some money on Mark Sanford, Haley Barbour and New Gingrich as a hedge against one of the frontrunners being felled by a major scandal. However, the rumours of a sex scandal involving one of the major candidates have turned out to be just that – idle gossip. STILL AVOID.