Obama leads by 2.17%

September 25, 2008

The Bailout seems to be having little impact in the polls

My new projections are:

Barack Obama 46.38
John McCain 44.21

My view is that Obama has missed several open goals over the past fortnight. However, the Palin pick (as opposed to anything else) seems to be the big driving force at the moment, as McCain’s lead peaked in the first week on September and has been consistently (but slowly) declining. My guess is that McCain will find a way to oppose the bailout – doing the right thing for the wrong reason. I’m also going to predict that he’ll do well from tomorrow’s debate since expectations are now rock bottom and – as Saddleback proved – he is quite a good debater.


One comment

  1. Hi,

    I am curious about how you get your numbers. Most of the major polling groups have Obama up by about 4-5 percentage points.

    How does your equation work?

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