Sell Romney & Sell Pawlentry

July 29, 2008

A contrarian take on the McCain veepstakes

Adding the intrade prices of Mitt Romney (32-37.9) and Tim Pawlentry (30-35) together allows one to see that the market is pricing the rest of the field at 2/1 (or 3.00). I believe that Romney and Pawlentry and the constant, ‘McCain will choose Romney tomorrow’ or ‘McCain will select Pawlentry later today’, speculation are only smokescreens for someone like Lieberman, Giuliani, Bloomberg or even Rice. If McCain has any sense it would be one of those four and would be announced at the convention to force people to tune in. While the McCain campaign has as unfortunate capacity to shoot itself in the foot, betting against Pawlentry and Romney is a very good idea.



  1. nice take. i agree that as it now goes the campaign is over for mccain meaning he needs a game changer in the form of an obama mistake or a news grabbing headline like an unexpected vp.

    bloomberg is so lovely in mind simply because the man knows the economy. i dont know much else about him but he knows the economy. all fear that a mccain administration will ruin the economy will be dismissed immediately. and the fact that he changed his party will attract those indep and hill/reagan dems.

    obama is too smart to make a simply mistake other than maybe iraq

    Obama’s recent comments on Iraq are pretty vague as well I discuss his and john mccains failure to move us onward in Iraq at


  2. Bloomberg’s more likely to back Obama than McCain. Furthermore, Lieberman, Giuliani, and Rice are all fatally-flawed candidates.

    The smart thing he should do is wait for Obama to make his pick, and then put all this chips in either MI or PA.

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