Obama’s lead falls, but only slightly

October 30, 2008

Obama leads by 5.48

My new projections are :

Barack Obama 49.99
John McCain 44.51

The contest seems to be tightening a bit. However, Obama still leads by more than 5%. I still give McCain about a 20% chance because he has halted Obama’s rise in the polls and is making a closing argument that, if not the strongest case he could be making, one that is above the belt and has a chance of succeeding. In any case it is at least (for the time being) keeping Sarah Palin out of the public eye.

Projecting my trend analysis out until election day still has Obama leading in the popular vote by nearly 9%. However, if we assume that the approaching election has disrupted the post convention trend, that the undecideds break for McCain and he can win the last few news cycles, then a win is possible. How realistic are these assumptions? Well, I’d guess that many undecideds are hawkish Democrats and moderates who were disgusted at the Palin pick, so the lower profile of Palin and the emphasis on Obama dodgy associations will help in that regard. If there is one thing I’d put money on its the Schmidt/Rove machine’s ability to grab a short term advantage and Team Obama’s tendancy to put its foot in its mouth.

However, another Palin scandal could arise (or she could pull a Liddy Dole or Michelle Bachman). Team Obama could use some of the cash that it has been storing to saturate the airwaves and Team McCain could spend the next few days preparing for the great Republican Civil War. In any case, even if thing broke McCain’s way he could come up short. My guess is a tiny McCain victory or an Obama victory by no more than 9%. However, that prediction is so general that it is not particularly useful or courageous prediction. So I’d say the McCain prices at Intrade offer value, but at 17.1 that’s pretty obvious.


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