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Obama’s lead down to 4.1%

June 27, 2008

Is McCain bouncing back, or is this just an illusion?

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 49
John McCain 44.90

This might just be the usual polling noise but I feel that McCain’s campaign may have turned a corner, especially when one looks at it in the context of the Missouri poll. Using the fictional Russell Bell’s scale this might not be a 50 degree day for McCain but it is not a 40 degree day either. In any case the Obama camp should be worried, especially given that for the last three months they have run a very good texbook campaign.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

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One comment

  1. A lead of 49-44 is no illusion. McCain’s campaign is weak and you know it.



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