Obama’s lead returns to 5.90%

June 23, 2008

Obama’s bounce persists

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 48.95
John McCain 43.05

Unlike my previous projections, there is no way that these results can be spun. Although, in time McCain’s ratings might start to catch up with those of Obama this is completely unecessary risk. McCain’s campaign has been poorly run with it increasingly reminding one of the dog in James Thurber’s short story, afraid to attack Obama because of a perceived backlash, afraid to move to the centre because that would offend the ‘base’ and most importantly afraid of mentioning the war in Iraq, even though McCain actually leads on this issue in the polls. Indeed, in terms of economic policy you could be forgiven for questioning where the imprint of Thompson and Romney ends, even though McCain has had a distinguished record fighting for the interests of hard working Americans. On domestic issues McCain desperately needs a declaration of independance.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.


One comment

  1. “Bob Dole syndrome”, through and through.

    Sen. Obama will be the next president of the United States.

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