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Obama’s national lead is 4.08%

June 19, 2008

Obama’s bounce is starting to fade…slowly

My new national projections are:

Barack Obama 47.97
John McCain 43.89

This can really be spun two ways. I would like to say that Obama’s bounce is fading, however it is doing so at an incredibly slow rate. I still believe that McCain should be the clear favourite, however a part of me worries that McCain is both falling behind but not doing so to an extent that would serve as a wakeup call for him to move to the centre on domestic policy. Indeed, if the bounce is really fading, it is no thanks to his campaign staff or strategists who are sacrificing his reputation in favour of short term (and often contradictory) panders.

NOTE: My methodology for my detailed polling projections involves collating all the available polls of likely voters and then filtering them through Samplemiser, a Kalman filter. I only used polls of likely voters and I get my data from pollster.com.

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