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Filtered Polling Data: Conservative Majority of 30

November 23, 2007

Adding the latest YouGov poll to the previous polls produces a clear Conservative parliamentary majority. The predicted shares are Conservatives 41 Labour 32.13 Lib Dems 13.98. This produces a prediction of 256 seats for Labour (-40), 336 for the Conservatives (+25) and 24 for the Lib Dems (+10). The only good news for Labour is that the combined Conservative and Lib Democrat share of the vote only increased slightly to 54.98, suggesting that the voters who have moved away from Labour have not moved to the Lib Dems or the Tories. It should also be empahsised that the Channel Four polls suggest that voters still believe that 51% of the public believe Labour to be competant in handling economic matters (against 42% who believe them incompetant). In contrast only 46% of the public believe the Conservative economic team to be competant in economic matters (against 47% who believe that they are incompetant). This might not be as bad for Labour as people believe, especially if it pushes Northern Rock of the headlines.

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