Posts Tagged ‘Lib Dems’


Filtered Polling Data: Conservative majority of 54

November 27, 2007

Putting the latest ICM poll and all the other polls since August produces a Conservative majority of when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.94 Labour 27.52 Lib Dems 17.83. This produces a projection of 222 seats for Labour, 352 for the Conservatives and 45 for the Lib Dems. The only good news for Labour is that the Conservative share of the vote seems to be stuck at around 40% as voters move from Labour to the minor parties and Lib Dems.


Filtered Polling Data: Hung Parliament

November 24, 2007

Adding the latest ICM poll to the YouGov poll, and assuming that the Lib Dem vote share is 21 rather than 23, produces a weighted average of Conservatives 39.46 Labour 31.61 and the Lib Dems 16.69. Putting this average into the collection of polls since the end of August produces a hung parliament when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.51 Labour 31.7 Lib Dems 16.63. This produces a projection of 270 seats for Labour, 314 for the Conservatives and 35 for the Lib Dems. If the Conservatives can’t get a majority in the wake on the dire news about the Inland Revenue and the Lib Dems can only muster 35 seats, then this appears to confirm that the hype about a ‘Black November’ is unjustified.


Filtered Polling Data: HUNG PARLIAMENT

October 31, 2007

Inputting the latest ComRes and ICM polls into Sample Miser gives a projection of Conservatives 40.52%, Labour 34.23% and the Lib Dems 16.81%. This translates into a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party with 303 seats, Labour second with 284 seats and the Lib Democrats with 30 seats. I’m still sceptical about these polls but it looks like the Lib Dem leadership contest has caused a movement away from Labour to the Lib Dems. However, I’m pretty sure that Labour will have re-established a lead by the end of the year.


Filtered Polling Data: LAB Majority 18

October 26, 2007

Filtering recent polling data through SampleMiser gives a (small) Labour Majority. The main movement seems to be from the Lib Dems to the Tories.

Putting polling data from the YouGov poll in August 31 to the recent YouGov poll produces the following predicted vote shares: Labour 37.98% Conservatives 41.01% and Liberal Democrats 11.01%. Putting these figures into Baxter gives an electoral projection of 334 Labour seats, 288 Conservative seats and no Liberal Democrats. What is more interesting is that, apart from a fall in late September and a bulge on October 12th, the combined Liberal and Conservative shares of the votes have been around 50-52% for the last two months. This seems to suggest that the contraction of the Labour lead since the non-election was due to Lib Dems switching to the Conservatives.

Although this could suggest that a sizable proportion of Lib Dems are weak Conservatives (and as such are prepared to vote tactically for the Tories) it also suggests that even the events of the last few weeks haven’t changed the fact that Labour have moved into the high 30s. Indeed, if Labour are in this situation after an drubbing from the media, we can expect to see the government ahead of Cameron before the end of the year. Punters should use this as an opportunity to take a punt on both a 2008 election and a Labour victory.


Are the Liberal Democrats up against the wall?

September 30, 2007

A look at British polling trends


 Although this web-log specialises in political commentary rather than polling data this site is pleased to present what will be an ongoing attempt to present the latest polling data, as smoothed by Samplemiser, a online program that aims to create polling trends from a series of polls. Although the data is still not completely certain, due to the fact that some polls have not yet disclosed their sample sizes, putting the last 13 surveys of British voting intention into the program produces the polling data that you see above. According to the filter the current polls suggest that, were the election to be held today, Labour would get 41.31%, the Tories would get 33.6% and the Lib Dems would get only 12.57%. Putting these figures in Martin Baxter’s website produces a Labour majority of 130, with the Liberal Democrats being reduced to 3 seats.

Even if we adjust the figures slightly to take 2% away from Labour and given 1% to the Conservatives and Lib Dems each and we assume that up to 10% of Labour and Conservative supporters vote tactically for the Liberals, Labour still increases its majority to 96 and the Lib Dems are stil reduced to 29 seats. These figures must surely give encouragement to both Gordon Brown and Labour supporters (like myself).