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Filtered Polling Data: Hung Parliament

November 24, 2007

Adding the latest ICM poll to the YouGov poll, and assuming that the Lib Dem vote share is 21 rather than 23, produces a weighted average of Conservatives 39.46 Labour 31.61 and the Lib Dems 16.69. Putting this average into the collection of polls since the end of August produces a hung parliament when the data is put through Samplmiser. The predicted vote shares are Conservatives 39.51 Labour 31.7 Lib Dems 16.63. This produces a projection of 270 seats for Labour, 314 for the Conservatives and 35 for the Lib Dems. If the Conservatives can’t get a majority in the wake on the dire news about the Inland Revenue and the Lib Dems can only muster 35 seats, then this appears to confirm that the hype about a ‘Black November’ is unjustified.

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One comment

  1. The average poll ratings for November are: Con 40% Lab 33% Lib Dem 16% Others 11%. Con lead of 7% = 5% swing to Con = Con short by 13 of an overall majority



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