Pennsylvania Prediction Contest Update

According to CNN, the final result with all precincts counted is a Clinton victory by 9.29%. This means that the winner of the contest is JL. Although the unofficial results of the Pennsylvania Secretary of State are closer to 9.2%, I have gone with the CNN results because they seem to have counted all precincts. Although it didn’t generate enough interest to make this sort of competition an economic form of advertising, thanks to everyone who took part.

McCain (fractionally) leads both Clinton and Obama

Clinton and Obama do equally well against McCain

My new national projections (last poll ending April 10th) are:

John McCain 46.59
Barack Obama 44.65

John McCain 46.76
Hillary Clinton 44.67

Obama and Clinton both run McCain very close, though I still believe that Hillary would be the more formidable opponent. However, as I said in my last report, McCain really needs to start moving to the centre and moving outside the ‘tax cuts cure everything’ box that he seems to have put himself in.

Obama leads Clinton in North Carolina by 13.68

Can Clinton reduce Obama’s margin to single digits?

Adding the latest polls to the collection of North Carolina polls, I’ve come up with the following projections.

Barack Obama 52.05
Hillary Clinton 38.37

Clinton seems to well on her way to reducing Obama’s margin to single digits. However, with more resources Obama could very well push his margin to over 15%. Clinton cannot afford to be on the receiving end of a complete blowout.

Johnson leads by 6.32% on first preferences

Johnson doing well

My projections for the Mayor of London first preferences are now:

Boris Johnson 44.01
Ken Livingstone 37.69
Brian Paddick 11.86

This is obviously bad news for Ken Livingstone, although he is still relatively close to Boris Johnson. Of course, since it is unlikely that either candidate will get to 50% on first preferences alone it all depends the second choices of supporters of the minor party candidates.

Final comments on Pennsylvania

Mixed night for TPT.com

1. It was a mixed night for me. My ‘gut’ feel prediction (11.2) came pretty close while my final Samplemiser projection (9.34) was almost exactly on the ball. Even my penultimate projection (4.24) wasn’t too far out.

2. Unfortunately, even though Hillary may have outperformed the 8% that she needed to stay in the contest she missed both the 12% mark that I had money on and the 10% mark that she needed to have an impact. Consequently, the markets are pretty static.

3. I’m going to wait for a bit until all the results have come in, and the difference between the CNN and Pennsylvania figures are resolved, to decide a winner. However, it looks like the winning margin is 9.4.

4. This result hasn’t resolved anything, except that the impact of Wrightgate and the delegate’s desire to end the contest have cancelled each other out.

What do you think? Please leave your comments below.

Markets still relatively static

Slight uptick for Clinton so far, but nothing compared to the gyrations of previous nights

With rumours of Clinton leading by 10% in exit polls, there has been a slight uptick in Clinton’s price. However, it isn’t anything compared with either the gyrations of Super Tuesday, or the rollercoaster that was New Hampshire…yet.

Final Projection: Clinton leads by 9.34%

Hillary ahead but she is projected to land inside the spread

There were three polls published today which diminishes the importance of the PPP poll.

Hillary Clinton 51.18
Barack Obama 41.84

The contest certainly has been the most volatile I’ve ever seen. The first poll that I included was on February 12 and it had a 16 point Clinton lead (reduced to a 15.33 margin in my projections). The largest Clinton lead was 19.13% on March 8th and the lowest was 0.56% on April 15th (my projection record has never had Obama ahead).

If you are interested in the views of other websites, the excellent Election Projection has a roundup.

TPT users predict a Clinton Victory by 8.86%

Good news for Clinton, but is it enough?

The Pennsylvania Prediction contest is now closed. There were 30 entries with only two predicting an Obama victory. The predictions ranged from an Obama victory by 1.2% to a Clinton victory by 14.5%. The average prediction was Clinton by 8.86 and the average of the two median predictions was 9.2%. This suggests that although Clinton is certain to win Pennsylvania, she performs roughly in the middle of the 8-10 spread that most pundits, including myself, think that she needs to cover to be able to continue in the contest. Good luck to all those who took part!

Betting markets remain steady as polls open in Pennsylvania

Punters still overwhelmingly favour Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination

The betting markets seem to be realtively stable as the polls open in Pennsylvania, with little movement either way. They still overwhelmingly expect Hillary Clinton to win but they don’t think that a victory in Pennsylvania will do anything for her chances of winning the nomination. Assuming that a loss in the Keystone state will end her campaign (which I think everyone can agree on) the implied probabiliy of victory in PA leading to the nomination is (15.3/92.7) = 16.40%. Of course it it all depends on the margin of her victory but if she manages to beat the spread Hillary should be the favourite.

Hillary Clinton leads by 4.24%

TPT’s penultimate prediction is not good for Hillary Clinton

There has been a significant number of polls released in the last few minutes:

Hillary Clinton 48.63
Barack Obama 44.39

There is not much to say about this poll, only that it might have been skewed by the PPP poll which put Barack Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton. The PPP poll had 2,338 likely voters so it will have a very large weight relative to other polls. It goes without saying that if this result is repeated tonight Barack Obama will be the nominee. I will be posting one final prediction just before the polls close.

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Disinformation, last gasp or the truth?

What are we to make of Drudge’s rumours of a 11% Clinton lead?

The lastest runour flashing around the internet is that Hillary Clinton’s internal polling is suggesting that she had a eleven point lead over Obama. If this is true (in the sense that it really is coming from her staff) this is rather intriguing. Firstly, it suggests that she is really unconcerned about the expectations game. It also suggests that she believes that the appearance of momentum is far more important, even it if loses her the last minute sympathy vote. Personally, I think that she is trying to convince voters that a vote for her will actually win her the nomination rather than delaying the coronation of Obama by a week or two. Maybe, she is really going to fight this all the way to the convention. In any case I have always ignored internal polling, because of its high selectivity (candidates rarely publish bad results) and the fact that most polling companies are usually willing to give polling for a client a nudge to ensure that it doesn’t produce news which is too bad. I would advise punters to discount such talk.

Update: Hillary Clinton leads by 7.98%

A flurry of new polls but only a slight change

There has been a significant number of polls released in the last few minutes:

Hillary Clinton 49.65
Barack Obama 41.67

Not much to say that Hillary seems to be getting into the zone where she can think about continuing (or at least withdrawing from a position of dignity). However, the complete polling chaos of the past few days means that the 12% handicap from Ladbrokes looks good value at 3.50 (5/2) and I have put another £20 on her.

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Hillary Clinton leads by 7.41%

Good news for Hillary, but is it too late?

Adding the latest polls to my projections produces the following:

Hillary Clinton 49.25
Barack Obama 41.84

This is good news. However, Hillary definitely needs to get into double figures to be able to continue. I’m ultimately going to have to go with what Samplemiser says, but let’s just say that if there is any deviation from these projections, it will probably be in Clinton’s favour. I guess we’ll just have to wait to see if any other polls come out today or tomorrow that change things.

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Punters pessimistic about Hillary

Days away from the Pennnsylvania primary punters are not optimistic about Hillary

Although there has been a very slight recovery in her price, from a low of 13 to around 15, punters are extremly pessimistic about the chances of Senator Clinton being the nominee. I still believe that although her position is dire, and if the polls are correct she could possibly have withdrawn by Tuesday morning, she still has around a 25% chance of winning the nomination. She only has to beat the spread in Pennsylvania, and she will have gained a fresh burst of momeuntum. Factor in, that if you include Florida she still has a chance of winning the national popular vote, she will then have demonstrated her electability and will have presented the superdelegates with the excuse that they need to vote for her. Of course, this assumes a good performance in Pennsylvania, but it is still a value bet.

Hillary Clinton leads by only 3.37%

Hillary Clinton needs a lot of luck to be able to credibly continue

Adding the latest version of the Zogby tracking poll to my collection produces the following projections:

Hillary Clinton 46.49
Barack Obama 43.12

Hillary’s lead has fallen back to up to 3.37%, which is cleary less than what she needs to be able to continue in this contest. Things are not looking good for the Senator from New York.

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