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British Polling Projections: Conservative Majority of 136

April 25, 2008

Will this put Brown’s head on the line?

Adding the latest ICM poll to my collection and filtering it produces the following projections:

Conservatives 43.69 (393)
Labour 26.4 (195)
Liberal Democrats 17.07 (33)

As a point of reference, popular alternatives produce the following; (Poll of polls) Con 40.2 Lab 30.6 LDm 17.8 (5 Poll Rolling Average) Con 41.2 Lab 30.6 LDm 17.8 Although the idea of a 17.29% Conservative lead is probably an exaggeration (though not too far of reality), the double digit rolling poll averages and the similarly dire poll of polls are bad for Labour. Very serious questions about Brown should now be asked by backbenchers. My £8 on Charles Clarke at 50/1, £1 on Hazel Blears at 100/1 and £ on John Reid at 50/1 might not be so crazy after all!

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