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Punters a little more bullish about Hillary Clinton in Indiana

April 28, 2008

Hillary’s Intrade price rises, but is it justified?

Surprisingly, after the Pennsylvania polling blitz, there haven’t been any new polls about North Carolina or Indiana. However, the betting markets are a little bit more optimistic about Hillary Clinton’s chances in Indiana, with the last traded price on her Intrade contracts in the Hoosier state going above 60. My view is still that Hillary has only a 55% chance of winning this state. However, the decision of Barack Obama’s mentor Jeremiah Wright to give a number of high profiile speeches will throw some more gasoline on an already hot primary contest. Although it can only be good for Barack Obama’s candidacy to remind people about the groundbreaking nature of his candidacy it is undeniable that his comments about Iraq/9-11 and other matters also diminish both his credibility on national security and as a potential commander-in-chief. Also, some of the Rev Wright’s more bizzare statements, including his psuedo-scientific neurological ‘theories’, do nothing for Wright’s reputation or to raise the tone of the debate.

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