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McCain leads by 0.87

August 5, 2008

Finally, I can show a McCain lead on my chart

My latest projections are:

John McCain 46.7
Barack Obama 45.83

McCain having his first definite lead in my projections since May 31st (likely voters only, filtered through Samplemiser) I am breathing a little more freely. However, even I have to admit that one swallow doesn’t make a summer. With the exception of a few poll readings during Wrightgate, McCain has failed to break 50%, while Obama has never got a majority of voters to back him.

Although it might be the beginning of the end for Obama, it is definitely not ‘mission accomplished’ for McCain. Against my expectations, Schmidt has managed to cauterise the wound. However, now is the time to do something radical, like picking Lieberman or Giuliani, to seal the deal.

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